Launching of Association of Financial Advisers (AFA)

31^stOct 2012 would be a historic day for Malaysia financial planning industry with the launching of newly formed Association of Financial Advisers (AFA) at Lanai Kijang, Bank Negara Malaysia. From now onwards, AFA will effectively represent all the Licensed Financial Advisers and Corporate Unit Trust Advisers (CUTA) Firms. The association is approved by Registrar of Societies on the 16th August 2012 with the support from Bank Negara Malaysia.

In conjunction with its launching, AFA also held its inaugural financial advisers conference titled “Charting New Frontier – FA the Future”. During the conference, audiences were empowered with up to date practices by Bank Negara and Securities Commission. Then, an interesting forum on the Future of Malaysia Financial Advisers Industry was discussed with everyone attentions. How we benchmark ourselves with other countries? We heard some success stories from Singapore and Hong Kong.

It was a successful milestone event for financial planners and CUTAs judging by the numbers of financial practitioners who attend the event. Product manufacturers, such as insurance and unit trust companies, started to realize the potential influences of financial planners and CUTAs in distributing their products and services. This signifies the bright future of financial planning industry moving forward, in line with the Capital Master Plan 2 by Securities Commission of Malaysia. There is no better time to be a licensed financial planner now.

This is a guest post contributed by Alex Yeoh, a licensed financial planner with VKA Wealth Planners. Finance Malaysia is glad to have Alex's input on financial planning matters. You may contact him via alexyeoh@vka.com.my

Summary of 2011 Bank Negara Malaysia Annual Report

The global economy grew at a more moderate pace in 2011 after the strong rebound in 2010. The growth momentum was weighed down by continued structural weaknesses and fiscal issues in the advanced economies, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and the disruptive impact of natural disasters on global manufacturing production. These developments reverberated onto international financial markets and contributed to heightened market volatility throughout the year.

Despite the less favourable external environment, emerging economies continued to record firm domestic-driven economic growth. At the same time, emerging economies faced increasing challenges from volatile capital flows and rising inflationary pressures. Amidst this environment, the Malaysian economy continued to grow steadily underpinned by the expansion in domestic activity and firm regional demand.

The Malaysian Economy in 2011

The Malaysian economy recorded a steady pace of growth of 5.1% in 2011 (2010: 7.2%), despite the challenging international economic environment. Growth was lower in the first half of the year, particularly in the second quarter, as the economy was affected by the overall weakness in the advanced economies and the disruptions in the global manufacturing supply chain arising from the natural disaster in Japan. Although the global economic environment became increasingly more challenging and uncertain in the second half-year, Malaysia’s economic growth improved due to stronger domestic demand.

Outlook for the Malaysian Economy in 2012

• Malaysia’s economy is projected to experience a steady pace of growth of 4 – 5% in 2012
• Domestic demand to remain resilient
• 2012 Budget expected to provide support to private consumption
• Upward revision of public sector wages and one-off financial assistance to low and middle-income groups
• Ongoing implementation of projects under ETP
• Higher capital expenditure by both the Federal Government and the non-financial public enterprises
• Implementation of the Special Stimulus Package through Private Financing Initiative

Labour market conditions are expected to soften in 2012 amid the slower economic activity. The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 3.2% of the labour force in 2012. Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2012, averaging between 2.5 – 3.0%. The lower inflation projection reflects the moderation in global commodity prices and a more modest growth in domestic demand.

Source: BNM report

BNM Further Liberalisation on Forex (Jan 2012)

As part of continuous efforts by Bank Negara Malaysia to enhance competitiveness in the economy and to develop the domestic financial markets, Bank Negara Malaysia wishes to announce the following liberalisation measures, with effect from 31 January 2012:

1. To further spur the domestic foreign exchange market through greater product innovation, licensed onshore banks are permitted to trade foreign currency against another foreign currency with a resident.
2. To further deepen the domestic interest rate derivatives market, a licensed onshore bank is allowed to offer ringgit-denominated interest rate derivatives to a non-bank non-resident.
3. Towards enhancing the asset liability management of residents, flexibility is permitted for a resident to convert their existing ringgit or foreign currency debt obligation into a debt obligation of another foreign currency.

The above measures which are in line with the broad thrust of the Financial Sector Blueprint will contribute towards increasing the liquidity, depth and participation of wider range of players in the domestic financial markets.

Frequently Asked Questions:

1. Can a resident buy and sell foreign currency against another foreign currency for any purpose?
• Yes. With this liberalisation, a resident is allowed to buy and sell foreign currency against another foreign currency for any purpose including for trading. However, such transactions shall only be undertaken with a licensed onshore bank.
2. Does the liberalisation include trading of foreign currency against ringgit?
• No. The liberalisation is only for transactions involving foreign currency against another foreign currency for any purpose.
3. What are the prevailing rules on investment in foreign currency assets?

4. Who are the licensed onshore banks?
• licensed commercial banks in Malaysia;
• licensed Islamic banks in Malaysia; and
• licensed investment banks in Malaysia.
5. What are the prevailing rules on foreign currency credit facilities obtained by a resident?

For further information and enquiries on the measures, members of the public may contact Bank Negara Malaysia via Toll free line : 1 300 88 5465 (BNMTELELINK)

Source: BNM website

Malaysia Financial Sector Blueprint 2011 - 2020

Bank Negara Malaysia today released the new Financial Sector Blueprint. Themed "Strengthening Our Future", the Blueprint charts the future direction of the financial system over the next ten years.

The growth of the financial system should be ultimately anchored to the growth in the real sector. Based on the rate of growth of the economy projected for the next decade, the financial sector is envisaged to expand to six times of GDP in 2020 from 4.3 times of GDP currently. Meanwhile, the contribution of the financial services sector to nominal GDP is expected to grow from 8.6% of nominal GDP to between 10 and 12% by 2020. 

Recognising the increasingly complex linkages, both between the various components of the financial system and the greater international connectivity and regional financial integration, the Blueprint moves away from the sector-based approach of the previous Financial Sector Masterplan (FSMP).

There are 9 focus areas under the Blueprint to further advance financial sector development to drive Malaysia's transition to a high value-added, high-income economy with adequate safeguards to preserve financial stability:

• Effective intermediation for a high value-added and high-income economy - This entails the mobilisation of diverse savings to productive investments in Malaysia and to meet the needs of both businesses and households. A vibrant risk-capital ecosystem to support innovation-driven economic activities and start-up ventures will be developed. The initiatives will also include enhancing the provision of large and long-term project financing for infrastructure development.
  
  
  To cater to Malaysia's growing affluent segment and maturing population, emphasis will be placed on enhancing the provision of financial services for wealth management, retirement and long-term healthcare. The development of a vibrant private pension industry is also expected to enhance the role of pension funds as a key source of funding for the longer-term and risk-based financing needs of the economy.
  
  
• Developing deep and dynamic financial markets - Efforts will be directed towards improving the liquidity, depth and participation in the money, foreign exchange and government securities markets in Malaysia, in enabling more effective intermediation, transfer of risks and management of liquidity, and meeting the diverse needs of a more developed and internationally integrated economy.
  
  
  The foreign exchange administration rules will be progressively liberalised to further raise efficiency in financial market transactions. The development of vibrant domestic foreign exchange and money markets, and ensuring sound risk management and corporate governance practices by financial market players, will be an important agenda in the development of our financial system.
  
  
• Financial inclusion for greater shared prosperity - The aim is to enable all members of society, including the underserved, to have access to and usage of quality, affordable and essential financial services. Initiatives will focus on developing more innovative delivery channels such as agent banking to enhance the outreach of financial services in a cost-efficient manner and expansion of the range of products and services such as more flexible micro financing products, long-term contractual micro saving products, and microinsurance and microtakaful products to cater to distinct financial needs of all segments of society.
  
  
• Strengthening regional and international financial integration - As the Malaysian financial sector assumes a larger role in mobilising regional and cross-border funds and supporting the needs of both Malaysian corporations expanding abroad and corporations that invest in Malaysia, efforts to strengthen Malaysia's international financial linkages will be pursued.
  
  
  Moving forward, Malaysia's investment policy will be guided by two key considerations - (i) prudential criteria and (ii) the best interest of Malaysia criteria, which includes the effect of the investment on Malaysia's economic activity, particularly in catalysing new high value-added activities, contribution towards enhancing international trade and investment linkages and impact on financial stability, including the level of competition. A further consideration in assessing the best interest of Malaysia is the continued presence of strong and well-managed domestic banking groups that continue to mobilise a significant share of resident deposits, as this is important for the orderly growth and development of the financial sector. 
  
  
• Internationalisation of Islamic finance - While Malaysia has made significant inroads in becoming an international Islamic financial centre, efforts will continue to be undertaken to enhance the Islamic financial ecosystem. This will entail developing a more conducive environment for the mobilisation of higher volumes of international Islamic financial flows from a diverse range of players to be channelled through innovative Islamic financial instruments. In strengthening the legal and Shariah frameworks and further advancing Malaysia's thought leadership in Islamic finance, a single legislated body to be the apex authority on Shariah matters in Islamic finance will be established. 
  
  
• Regulatory and supervisory regime to safeguard the stability of the financial system - A comprehensive legislative framework will be enacted to reinforce a sound, transparent and accountable system for effective regulation and supervision. Focus will also be accorded towards enhancing capital and liquidity standards of financial institutions in line with international standards as well as raising their governance and risk management standards. As the financial sector grows to be more regionally-and internationally-connected, greater cross-border collaboration will be pursued with other supervisory authorities.
  
  
• Electronic payments for greater economic efficiency - Accelerating the migration to electronic payments (e-payments) will be emphasized. In the next ten years, the Bank targets to increase the number of e-payment transactions per capita from 44 transactions to 200 transactions, and reduce cheques by more than half from 207 million to 100 million per year. Measures to achieve this aim will include providing the right price signals to encourage the switch from paper-based payments to e-payments, and facilitating wider outreach of e-payments infrastructure, such as point-of-sale terminals and mobile phone banking.
  
  
• Empowering consumers - A comprehensive and holistic approach towards consumer protection and education will be pursued in collaboration with various stakeholders. The aim is to promote a culture of mutual responsibility shared between consumers, who are empowered with the knowledge, skills and financial literacy to manage their personal wealth, and financial service providers, who uphold fair and responsible dealings in the conduct of their business.
  
  
  The infrastructure to support greater consumer empowerment will be strengthened through establishing a single consumer credit legislation, integrated dispute resolution system and an enhanced credit information framework. Measures to promote financial capability among consumers through the integration of financial curriculum at schools and targeted financial literacy programmes based on life events will be pursued. 
  
  
• Talent development to support a more dynamic financial sector - A Financial Services Talent Council will be established to drive, oversee and coordinate talent development efforts in the financial sector. Other initiatives include developing talent for entry level, promoting continuous learning for the existing workforce, and attracting talent from abroad. Ensuring an adequate supply of skilled talent to meet the challenges in the new financial landscape will require greater collaboration and coordination among various agencies beyond the financial sector.

The Blueprint charts a vision and direction for the Malaysian financial sector for  the next ten years that will support Malaysia's long-term ambitions. To ensure the achievement of the desired outcomes, a robust implementation and monitoring framework will be put in place, including update on the progress of the implementation of the Blueprint.

Click here to download the publication

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Property prices to Come Down after BNM's latest guidelines? (Nov 2011)

Like it or not, Bank Negara Malaysia announced that effective 1 Jan 2012, financial institutions must make appropriate enquiries into a prospective borrower's income after statutory eductions for tax and EPF, and consider all debt obligations, in assessing affordability.

Aimed at promoting prudent, responsible and transparent retail financing practices, the new guidelines require financial institutions to make assessments of a borrower's ability to afford financing facilities based on a prudent debt service ratio as inputs to their credit decisions.

On top of that, a new guideline was stipulated that the maximum tenure for vehicle financing should not exceed 9 years, with immediate effect (18 November 2011). Right now, there are only 2 banks which offers vehicle financing up to 11 years, and less than 2% of car buyers now opted for tenures beyond 9 years. The changes was neglect-able.

Are you an Informed Borrower?

The guidelines additionally hope to ensure that consumers are treated fairly in the sales, marketing and administration of financing facilities. As such, financial institutions are required to provide consumers with specific information on the following:

• total repayment amount
• total interest cost as well
• impact of an increase in the financing rate

The BIGgest Impact will be on Property sector?

Since that the banks are required to assess the affordability of borrowers based on net income, many people may not have the capital needed to pay for down payment. Although automobile industry will be affected, the biggest victim will be on property sector. This is because property purchasing needs more capital outlay.

On top of that, the value of property went up so high currently where the market value does not match the seller's asking price. To meet the short-fall, buyers are forced to fill-in with cash. This had already slowing down property prices lately. But, after the new guideline, would it be worst? Definitely.

The numbers of affordable buyers will became lesser. Hence, demand for property will be softened. What if supply more than demand? Simple economic theory told us that prices have to come down in order to strike a balance. I think this is true and will materialize next year.

Key Highlights of BNM 3Q11 Report

Titled as "ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MALAYSIA IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2011", Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) review some interesting facts on the status of our economy and the market outlook going forward. The announcement was chaired by Central Bank's governor to address the media after the closing of Bursa Malaysia.

Growth improved in the third quarter

Despite the challenging environment, Malaysian economy registered a higher growth of 5.8% (2Q11: 4.3%), due to stronger domestic demand. The robust  domestic demand was driven by an expansion in both household and business spending as well as higher public sector expenditure. Manufacturing sector recording a significantly better performance supported by firm regional  demand for resource-based products, coupled with the normalisation in supply chain disruptions arising from the Japan natural disaster.

The headline inflation rate, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.4% on an annual  basis in the third quarter (2Q 11: 3.3%). The increase in consumer prices was largely the result of higher prices in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category.

Current  account recorded a larger surplus of RM26.6 billion, equivalent to 12.5% of GNI due to a higher goods surplus and lower income deficits. As at 31 October 2011, International Reserves position had increased to RM429.1 billion, equivalent  to USD134.8 billion, sufficient to finance 9.9 months of retained imports and is 4.1 times the short-term external debt.

Monetary policy is supportive of economic activity

The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was  left unchanged at 3.00% in the third quarter of 2011, following a 25 basis points increase in May. The stance of monetary policy is consistent with the assessment of heightened uncertainties arising from global developments that have created greater downside risks to growth.

The ringgit depreciated against the US dollar in the third quarter, in line with other regional currencies. The depreciation, mostly in September 2011, reflected mounting concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis and the sustainability of global economic recovery, which led to higher risk aversion and prompted some investors to unwind holdings of emerging market assets.

Please click here to read the full BNM report.

3 Hints given by BNM (16 May 2011)

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) hiked the OPR by 25bps to 3% on 5 May as what some analysts said "Surprising". The OPR hike was a pre-emptive strike on inflation pressures as the output gap closes. Many analysts are expecting hikes to resume only in July as inflation remains largely supply side driven. However, BNM seems to act before demand pull pressures dominate and before the output gap turns positive. In our view, the OPR and SRR hike is indicating two things here.

Hints #1

Inflation is going to threaten the Malaysian economy in the near-term (at least). Recent increase in prices of petrol and sugar will further accelerate the numbers. With ongoing efforts by Government to reduce the subsidies, inflation numbers for sure will gone up.

Citi Research: Regional Policy Rates as at 10th May 2011

Hints #2

Related to inflation also, BNM is trying to reduce the increasing food and resources prices. If we can reduce the import price, by having a stronger currency, this would be a wise move. So, BNM is trying hard to cramp down our money spent on these import items. Not by reducing the quantity of imports, Malaysia are buying at a cheaper price. How to that? Of course, by raising the OPR rates, which will lead to a stronger currency RM.

Citi: Regional Currency Performances as at 10th May 2011

Hints #3

Maybe, BNM foresees that Malaysia economy is going to face some real challenges (Asian financial crisis?). If the situation really turns bad in a year or two, how are we going to reduce the rate to spur economy given the current low rates? We must have room for BNM to decrease the rate by that time. That's why BNM so pro-active now?

New Rules on Credit Cards: NO Credit for LOW Credit?

New Measures on Credit Cards had been announced by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to promote prudent financial management and responsible business practices. Summary on the announcement made:

• For new credit card holders, minimum income eligibility is set at RM24,000 p.a
• For cardholders earning RM36,000 p.a and less, the following would be applicable:
• Cardholders can only hold credit cards from a maximum of 2 issuers
• Affected existing cardholders are given up to the end of 2011 to select their preferred issuers.
• Cardholders will also be given at least 2 years to service their outstanding credit card debt for the credit cards that have been canceled for the purpose of meeting this requirement.

• The maximum credit limit extended to a cardholder shall not exceed 2x their monthly income per issuer.
• For affected existing cardholders, a grace period of 2 years will be given to them to meet with the new requirement.

Example of Credit Cards

How about credit card issuers?

• Credit card issuers are required to adopt fair, transparent and responsible approach in marketing and offering of credit cards to consumers
• Can issuers increase cardholders' credit limit without obtaining their consent? NO
• Can issuers offer a credit advance in the form of cheque payable to cardholders, if they did not request for it? NO

Ease of comparison and making decisions...

• Issuers to provide a Product Disclosure Sheet that contains key information on the card's features, fees and obligations of the cardholders.
• Issuers to display prominently alerts to communicate to cardholders the implications of meeting only minimum and partial repayments.
• Annual statements will be issued at the end of each year, providing information on how long it will take to fully pay off the cardholder's outstanding balance and the total interest costs if only minimum repayment made.

How to make Credit Card Infrastructure more Secure and Safe?

• Effective 1 January 2012, transaction alerts via Short Messaging Service (SMS) will be implemented after each transactions are performed
• Effective 1 January 2015, Personal Identification Number (PIN) verification for all card transactions will be implemented

To make our Credit Card safer

Finance Malaysia have a say

The eligibility starts from minimum RM2,000 per month salary is good. We should not give credit to those lower income group as that will only encourage them to spend with credit. But, the maximum credit limit of 2x monthly income is somehow too conservative. In fact, issuers are giving 3x credit limit currently, which is deemed reasonable. 

Problem arise when we purchase a laptop worth RM2,500 for example, and opt for 0% interest repayment scheme. Even though we are capable to repay, but the credit limit balance is reduced by RM2,500 straightaway, and it left very little only.

Understandably, the measures is introduced when Malaysian households debt is considered very high currently. Overall, it is good for the banking systems, and I believe Malaysians welcome the extra security features to be imposed to instill confidence of public on the usage of credit cards.

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

What is Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR)?

Everyone is buzzing about SRR lately, since Bank Negara Malaysia's statement which stated its intention to raise SRR in the near future. Actually, what is SRR? And, what is the effect of higher SRR imposed? Why BNM using SRR right now? Finance Malaysia hopes to clear everyone's doubt and would appreciate if you can share this out.

What is SRR?

Statury Reserve Requirement is a monetary policy instrument available to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) for the purposes of liquidity management. Effectively, banking institutions namely commercial banks, merchant/investment banks and Islamic banks are required to maintain balances in their Statutory Reserve Accounts (SRA) equivalent to a certain proportion of their eligible liabilities (EL), this proportion being the SRR rate.

Why BNM uses the SRR as its "tool"?

Since SRR is available to BNM to manage liquidity and hence credit creation in the banking system, it was used to withdraw or inject liquidity when the excess or lack of liquidity in the banking system is perceived to be large and long-term in nature. Currently, BNM believes that our banking system is lack of liquidity, thus it may raised the SRR to "store" more money in banks.

Effective 1 March 2009, the SRR rate for banking institutions is 1% of EL. As of 1st September 2007, the EL base consists of ringgit denominated deposits and non-deposit liabilities, net of interbank assets and placements with BNM.

Previous adjustments to the SRR rate

What is the effect of higher SRR?

As explained above, higher SRR means that banks in Malaysia will have to keep more money as their reserve. This translates into lower loans growth for banks. Normally, banks wiould imposed stricter loan approvals for borrowers, because less funds are available for lending.

Normally, higher SRR translates into lower profit growth for banks. Banking stocks are the hardest hit. But, raising the SRR from a record low of 1% is unlikely to have any significant impact on credit growth. Finance Malaysia see this as an opportunity to accumulates banking stocks if they are battered down because of higher SRR.

Source: OSK Research

Source: OSK Research

Source: OSK Research

Source: OSK Research

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Related Posts:

Motor Insurance to cost more starting 2012?

Extractions from BNM monetary policy statement (Jan 2011)

How BNM OPR hiking affecting the market? (March 2010)

Motor Insurance to cost more starting 2012?

Last year, Malaysia Automobile Association (MAA) reported a record number of cars sold. Are you one of them? If you're not in that statistic yet and planning to own a new car now, please read this post which could scare you away.

In fact, petrol prices are heading up again since 2008 with prices of RON97 reviewing monthly. Without failed, the price of RON97 is going up consecutively for the past few months. Anyway, are you driving fuel-efficiency car like me? Despite that I am pumping RON95 petrol and driving the so called "fuel-efficiency" car, I still feel the pain of pumping money.

Source: Malaysia Automobile Association

What to do?

If you don't eat, your car still have to "drink" ma. Uncertainties in Middle East is already spiking up oil prices globally. You think this is the worst for motorists like us?

By "pouring oil on fire" (to make things even worse), government plans to gradually increase motor insurance premiums from 2012 onwards under the new motor insurance framework to be prepared by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

How much more?

Up by between 250% to 450%?

Bank Negara assistant governor citing it totally incorrect. He said the premiums increases would be gradual, and spread over 4 years. See chart below for illustration made. Please take note that the increase will depends on vehicle's age and motorist's history of claims.

www.financemalaysia.blogspot.com

Why we need the new framework?

1. This is the 1st revision since 1978
2. Government plan to do away with tariffs for motor insurance business in 2016
3. Insurance companies are crying over high claim costs which make their business unprofitable

On the flip side, the new scheme would see improvements in the overall delivery system including addressing issues relating to affordability and accessibility to Malaysian Motor Insurance Pool cover. Hence, it could significantly reduce claims settlement period to between 6 - 18 months from more than a year currently.

According to Bank Negara, the motor insurance business incurred an estimated annual loss of RM650 million as at 2009/2010, which means the motor insurance business is unsustainable if we don't act now.

Related posts:

1. Proton loves Perodua to avoid extinction?
2. Fraudulent Insurance Claims and YOU

Extractions from BNM monetary policy statement

As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% yesterday. This was the 3rd time in a row that BNM left it unchanged. Are there any hints by BNM on Malaysia's economy this year? We can explore the "hidden messages" from the monetary policy statement as below:

Regional Front:

• While advanced economies continue to register modest growth, most emerging economies have experienced strong growth.
• For Asian region, domestic economic activity continues to support the growth momentum amid weaker external demand.
• Shifts in global liquidity have resulted in significant capital flows into the emerging economies, in particular, Asian region, and have brought with it risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.
• The region is also being affected by global inflationary pressure arising from the higher commodity and food prices.

On Malaysia:

• Recent indicators point towards a sustained expansion in private sector activity.
• External demand, however, was affected by the slower global growth.
• Malaysian economy is expected to grow at a steady pace in 2011, underpinned by continue firm expansion in domestic demand.
• Private consumption will be supported by sustained employment and income growth.
• Private investment activity will be supported by domestic-oriented sectors and the expansion of new growth industries.

 On Inflation:

• Domestic headline inflation rose towards the end of 2010 albeit remained low at 2.2%.
• The increased was mainly on account of higher food and energy prices.
• Prices are expected to increase at a modest pace in the coming months, driven primarily by rising global commodity and food prices.
• The assessment is that inflation will continue to be driven by supply factors with limited evidence of excess demand exerting pressure on prices.

BNM Conclusions:

• BNM considers the current monetary policy stance as appropriate and consistent with current assessment of the economic growth and inflation prospects.
• The stance continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.
• Going forward, additional policy tools such as the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) and macro-prudential lending measures may be considered to avoid the risks of macroeconomic and financial imbalances.

Finance Malaysia view:

• We expected inflation to rise at a faster pace in 2011
• BNM to continue hiking interest rate in second-half 2011
• OPR potentially be raised by 50-75 basis points to 3.25-3.50%
• Bank's loan growth will slow if SRR was raised

Source: BNM website

For full BNM monetary policy statement, click here.


Related posts:
70% Loan to Value
How BNM OPR hiking affecting the market?

2011 Malaysia Outlook: Sunshine to Sunset

By Finance Malaysia,

Driven by better economy prospects, Malaysia successfully escape recession two years ago, particularly March 2009. Strong GDP growth and numerous government's initiatives is the main reason why local market experiencing a spectacular run-up since then. Today, our KLCI break another record high, by closing at 1551.89 points. So, what is the outlook for Malaysia in 2011?

Maybank expects KLCI will hit 1,700 mark in 2011

KLCI

The Malaysia Index will continue to perform in line with the overall economy. More IPO will be issue. More merger & acquisitions activities will be seen. KLCI will be driven by the following factors:-

• Improving sentiment
• Follow through momentum from all time high
• Hot capital inflows
• Improving liquidity
• Boost by plantation and oil & gas heavyweights, such as IOI, Sime and PetroChem

Preferred sector(s)...

• Finance sector will continue to do well in line with the economy
• 2011 will be a "Grammy Awards" show for construction sector, where government rolling out its multi-billion projects
• Another show is from oil & gas sector, organized by Petronas
• Property sector should continue chalking up sales with great demand

Sunshine to Sunset sector(s)...

Please take note that all is not so bright in 2011. Some of these sectors could face some turbulence in 2nd half of 2011. That's why I called it "Sunshine to Sunset".

• Once high-flyers in difficult times, glove sector could be facing another whirlwind quarters with excess capacity and high input costs in the second half.
• Besides glove, manufacturing sector would struggle because of electricity tariff hike imposed by TNB, speculating after Chinese New Year.
• Technology sector will be a sunset sector next year due to stronger ringgit.

Bond market

Local bond market will boom, in conjunction with the projects awarding sessions and government's ambition to make Malaysia an Islamic financial hub. Local bond market will do well in the first half, before Bank Negara Malaysia resume its interest rate hiking policy later.

70% Loan to Value

On 3rd November 2010, Bank Negara Malaysia wishes to announce with immediate effect the implementation of a maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 70%, which will be applicable to the 3rd house financing facility onwards taken out by a borrower.

Financing facilities for purchase of the 1st and 2nd homes are not affected and borrowers will continue to be able to obtain financing for these purchases at the present prevailing LTV level applied by individual banks based on their internal credit policies.

Why?

The measure aims to support a stable and sustainable property market, and promote the continued affordability of homes for the general public. 

At the national level, residential property prices have increased steadily in tandem with economic development and the rise in income levels.  This aggregate growth trend remains largely manageable and has not deviated from the long term trend in residential property prices.  In the more recent period, however, specific locations, particularly in and around urban centres, have experienced faster growth, both in the number of transactions and in house prices. This is further supported by an increase in financing provided for multiple unit purchases by a single borrower, suggesting increasing investment activity that is of a speculative nature.

The targeted implementation of the LTV ratio is expected to moderate the excessive investment and speculative activity in the residential property market which has resulted in higher than average price increases in such locations. This has also led to increases in house prices in surrounding locations, thus contributing to the declining overall affordability of homes for genuine house buyers.  This measure therefore remains supportive of the objective of encouraging home ownership among Malaysians which continues to be an important national agenda.

Finance Malaysia:

A conservative move by BNM, to avoid dampening the whole property market, and at the same time taking pre-cautious measure to "deflate the mini property bubble". As FM mentioned before, Government should introduce a higher Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT) which could effectively curb excessive speculation. But, such move is not popular in view of the upcoming general election which could be held as soon as first half of 2011.

FM DO NOT think that the latest movement by BNM will have any effect on the market. This is because one could buy his/her 3rd house using his/her child or spouse name instead. Maybe this is an advantage of having many children?

Source: BNM website

Why Great Eastern chose KATM as its partner?

Referring to previous article "Issuance of New Family Takaful Licenses" on 1st September 2010, many people are skeptical about Great Eastern's (GE) partner -- Koperasi Angkatan Tentera Malaysia (KATM). Given the other 3 new consortium which partner with banks, I am not surprise by those reactions.

To recap, the 4 new family takaful licenses:

1. AIA with Alliance Bank
2. Ambank with Friends Provident Fund (UK)
3. ING with Public Bank and Public Islamic Bank
4. GE with KATM

KATM, the country's Armed Forces multi-purpose cooperative, is however, no stranger to the insurance industry and it is a substantial shareholder of PacificMas with 16.4% stake. Meanwhile, Pacific Insurance Bhd is a wholly-owed subsidiary of PacificMas. (See picture below to see the GE-KTAM relationship)

Why with KATM?

KATM has 140,000 members which could be a huge market for GE to tap into. Another reason is that GE has to look into it's agents rice-bowl as well, if GE was to tied up with a local bank. Instead, GE dive into the 'blue ocean' where KATM is an untapped market of their existing agents. Other than that, this kind of partnership is well-isolated from political view, as KATM is not a company and it was not linked with government either.

Going forward...

Business Times had reported almost a year ago that Great Eastern had roped in former Prudential BSN Takaful Bhd chief executive officer Mohamad Salihuddin Ahmad to head its Islamic insurance operations.

Great Eastern would have a clear head-start compared to the other new takaful operators come next year and its reputation itself would give its an extra mileage.

Great Eastern is the largest insurance group in Singapore and Malaysia, with assets of S$48.5 billion (RM112 billion) as at February 10 2010 and 3.8 million policyholders in both countries.

On 30th August 2010, PacificMas saying it plans to sell its entire stake in Pacific Insurance Bhd to Fairfax Asia Ltd (Canadian company) subject to Bank Negara Malaysia's approval.