New Fund: Kenanga Asia Pacific Total Return

After merging with ING Funds Berhad, Kenanga Investors Berhad launched its first new fund of the enlarged family. In this uncertain global economic environment, how much return can a fund generated was the main concern for many investors. Want to get higher return? Then, we cannot runaway from higher volatility! Are there any balance in between?

Yes. To cater for such investors, this new fund aims to provide a compounded rate of return of at least 10% per annum over market cycle (5 years) by investing in a diversified portfolio of Asia Pacific equities.

3 Reasons WHY it benefits you:

Well... Unlike others, this fund DO NOT has any benchmark constraint. This allows flexibility in identifying and implementing the most optimum investment strategy. Picture below shows the differences between Absolute and Relative return:

Still not yet convinced? How about the proven track record?

Click here to download prospectus

Source: Kenanga Investors Bhd

New Fund: AmAsia Pacific Leisure Dividend

Do you like to go on a holiday spree in Asia Pacific region? If yes, then this fund may suit your appetite. On top of that, you can expect some dividends from this new fund launched by AmMutual. Please read on.

The fund aims to provide regular income and to a lesser extent capital appreciation over the medium to long term by investing in equities and equity-related securities of leisure industry across Asia Pacific region.

To achieve its objective, the fund seeks will be investing 70%-98% in a diversified portfolio of equities related to leisure industry. Who were they? They may include issuers engaged in the design, production and distribution of products and services related to leisure industry. These companies operate in the following sectors within the leisure industry such as hotel, retail, publishing, advertising, beverages, audio/video, broadcasting radio/television, cable and satellite, motion picture, recreation services and entertainment, toy, gaming and tobacco.

Where were they?

These companies are listed in the Asia Pacific region, which includes but not limited to Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. However, the fund will not invest into Japan.

Investment Strategy...

The investment manager combines top-down asset allocation process with a bottom-up security selection process. The asset allocation will be reviewed periodically depending on the macroeconomic, industry trends, respective country's economic and stock market outlook. The asset allocation decision is made after a review of macroeconomic trends in Asia Pacific economies. As for bottom-up security selection, the investment manager will focus on undervalued companies which demonstrate sound corporate fundamentals, which are expected to provide dividends yield above market average, and sustainable dividend yield on a medium to long term basis. Stock valuation fundamentals considered are earnings per share growth rate, return on equity, price earnings ratio and price to book multiples.

Click here to download prospectus

Source: AmMutual

NEW Aberdeen Islamic Funds

Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd has recently launched two shariah unit trust funds for the Malaysian market, the Aberdeen Islamic Malaysia Equity fund and the Aberdeen Islamic World Equity fund. The new funds are the company's 1st shariah retail products in Malaysia - and the 1st from a foreign fund manager under the special scheme - and come almost 8 years its parent company Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd was established to manage assets in Malaysia for institutions and corporate investors.

Malaysia: Turning promise into profit

Malaysia has long been rich in promise - rich because of its abundant natural resources, physical infrastructure and educated workforce. However it has not always maximize its advantages. In recent years that has changed as the country streamlines priorities. There is more emphasis now on efficiency, the private sector has a greater say across industries and more value is being created for shareholders. This enterprise is taking Malaysian companies overseas, too, helping businesses to sharpen their competitive edge.

Why Global then?

International markets are continually evolving, underpinned by increased movement of people, goods and capital around the world. But far from embracing 'globalization', research shows that investors tend to follow a home-country bias when it comes to their investments. As a result, they miss out on investments overseas that may offer steadier long-term returns as well as superior risk diversification.

Fund Detail

Source: Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management

New Fund: OSK-UOB Multi Asset Regular Income Fund

As investor continue to seek safe investment havens, i.e. investments that are more stable and/or of lower risk and with regular income, OSK-UOB Investment Management see opportunities in the Asia and Asia Pacific (ex Japan) region. Hence, they are now offering investors a fund that utilizes a multi-asset strategy to generate potential regular income and capital growth in a fund that invests in three yielding assets i.e. bonds, equities and REITs (real estate investment trusts) from the Asia and Asia Pacific (ex Japan) region.

The Fund is suitable for investors who:

1. seek regular income and capital growth over medium to long term;
2. are willing to accept moderate risk in their investments; and
3. wish to benefit from investment exposure in the Asian and Asia Pacific (ex Japan) region.

Tactical Asset Allocation?

Of the fund's investments, the External Investment Manager will initially invest in accordance to the allocation stated in the table below. However, for the purpose of tactical asset allocation, the manager may deviate from the stated allocation by a 10% variance for each asset class depending on the market conditions to achieve medium to long term returns.

Thus, this Fund's portfolio will be structured as follows:

• 65% - 98% of NAV
• Investments in Asian (ex Japan) debt instruments / bonds, Asia Pacific (ex Japan) dividend equities and Asia Pacific (ex Japan) REITs.
• 2% - 35% of NAV
• Investments in liquid assets including money market instruments and deposits with financial institutions.

What's the composite benchmark for this fund?

• 50% JP Morgan Asia Credit Index Total Return Composite (RM);
• 30% MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index (RM);
• 20% MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan REITs Index (RM).

Distribution Policy:

Depending on the level of income generated at each relevant period, the fund will declare distributions, if any, to unit holders QUARTERLY.

Click here to read fund's prospectus

Source: OSK-UOB Investment Management

RHBRI Market Outlook & Strategy 4Q2012: Stormier Outlook

RHB research institute (RHBRI) is of the view that it could still be a choppy few months for the equity market in the 4Q given weakening economic fundamentals in the major world economies and fears of an imminent general election on the home front. Whilst more rounds of quantitative easing have been unveiled in the developed world, the big question in investors’ minds is how all these quantitative easing measures will translate to better global economic outlook. Having said that, equity still stands up vis-a-vis the unappealing returns of the alternative asset classes, such as cash and bonds and any good news is still likely to prompt a rally in equities.

How was Malaysia fared?

And, what's the strategy now?

Thus far, Malaysia has fared relatively well in the global financial crisis, and this is partly on account of low reliance on foreign funding of its banking system and more importantly, the progress in the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme to boost domestic demand and cushion the economy against the downside risk from the external sector. As a result, the economy has bucked the trend and its real GDP growth is projected to pick up to +5.4% in 2013, from +5.0% estimated for 2012. This will translate to sustained earnings growth of around 6.0% in 2013 to create new shareholders’ values for investors.

We believe after a phase of correction and consolidation, the market will come back as the huge bond purchase programmes in the Eurozone and the US will push investors out of low-yielding cash and bonds over time into riskier assets such as equities. As the general election could be delayed to March 2013, our end-2012 FBM KLCI target remains unchanged at 1,690. Assuming global situations stabilize in six to nine months time and the global economic recovery is intact, our end-2013 FBM KLCI target is 1,815, based on 15x 2014 earnings.

Whilst our core strategy remains defensive, we believe investors would still need to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness in order to outperform the market. In addition, as the search for yield will likely remain a key driver for both retail and institutional investors in the 4Q, high divided-yielding stocks will also continue to outperform the market, in our view. Sector-wise, our key overweight are telecommunications and banking, although we also have an overweight stance on the utilities and healthcare sectors.

Source: RHBRI research report

New Fund: CIMB Islamic Al-Azzam Equity Fund

Launched on the same day with AmMutual new fund, the CIMB Islamic Al-Azzam Equity Fund is an open-ended fund that aims to achieve consistent capital growth over the medium to long term.

The asset allocation strategy for this Fund is as follows: 

• between 70% to 98% (both inclusive) of the Fund’s NAV will be invested in Shariah-compliant Malaysian equities; and 
• up to 30% of the Fund’s NAV in other Shariah-compliant investments and Shariah-compliant liquid assets, with at least 2% of the Fund’s NAV to be maintained in Shariah-compliant liquid assets.

For this Fund, the investment into Sukuk must satisfy a minimum credit rating of “A3” or “P2” by RAM or equivalent rating by MARC; “BBB” by S&P or equivalent rating by Moody’s or Fitch. In line with its objective, the investment  strategy and policy of the Fund is to rebalance the portfolio to suit market conditions in order to reduce short-term volatility and provide consistency in capital growth.


More on Investment Strategy...

CIMB-Principal combines a top-down asset and sector allocation process with a bottom-up stock selection process. The asset allocation decision is made after a review of macroeconomic trends in Malaysia and other global economies. In particular, CIMB-Principal analyzes the direction of gross domestic  product growth, interest rates, inflation, currencies and government policies.

CIMB-Principal will then assess their impact on corporate earnings and determine if there are any predictable trends. These trends form the basis for sector selection. Stock selection is based on the growth style of equity investing. As such, the criteria for stock selection would include improving fundamentals and growth at “reasonable valuations”. Stock valuation fundamentals considered are earnings per share growth rate, return on equity, price earnings ratio and net tangible assets multiples.

Who is suitable for this Fund? They are investors who: 

• have a medium to long-term investment horizon; 
• want a portfolio of investments that adhere to the Shariah principles; 
• want a diversified portfolio that includes Shariah-compliant equities and Sukuk; and/or 
• are seeking capital appreciation over medium to long-term.

Source: CIMB-Principal Asset Management
Click here to download the fund prospectus

New Fund: AmAdvantage Asia Pacific ex Japan Dividend

Wanted to diversify your investment portfolio especially on dividend based investments? You may look into this newly launched fund by AmMutual named AmAdvantage Asia Pacific ex-Japan Dividend Fund, a fund managed by AmInvestment Services Berhad.

The Fund is a feeder fund, which will invest into the  HSBC Global Investment Funds  – Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity High Dividend (the “Target Fund”), a sub-fund of the  HSBC Global Investment Funds domiciled in Luxembourg. The Fund seeks to provide income and long term capital growth by investing in the Target Fund which has an investment focus on Asia Pacific ex Japan equities.

The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing a minimum of 95% of the Fund’s NAV in the distribution share class in the HSBC Global Investment Funds – Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity High Dividend at all times. This implies that the Fund has a passive strategy.

More about the Target Fund
HSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNDS – ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND

The Target Fund was launched on 5th November 2004 and the total fund size of the Target Fund is  USD  170.78  million as at 31st December  2011. The Target Fund is regulated by Luxembourg Supervisory Authority, the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. 

Other than that, what's more important than the fund's past performance?

AmAdvantage Asia Pacific ex Japan Dividend is suitable for investors who seek:

• regular income in their investment; 
• long term capital growth on their investment; 
• participation in the upside potential of the Asia Pacific ex Japan market; and 
• medium to high risk investment vehicle. 

Source: AmMutual
Click here to download the fund prospectus

New Fund: AmAsia Pacific Equity Income

If you think that Asia Pacific will remain the main engine growth driver of world economy, then you should look into this fund launched by AmMutual. The Fund is a feeder fund, which will invest into the BlackRock Global Funds-Asia Pacific Equity Income Fund (the “Target Fund”), a sub-fund of the BlackRock Global Funds (BGF) domiciled in Luxembourg.

The Fund seeks to provide income and to a lesser extent Long Term capital growth by investing in the Target Fund which has an investment focus on Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing a minimum of 95% of the Fund’s NAV in the BlackRock Global Funds-Asia Pacific Equity Income Fund at all times. This implies that this Fund has a passive strategy.

BLACKROCK GLOBAL FUNDS (BGF)

BlackRock Global Funds (“the Company”) is incorporated in Luxembourg as an open-ended investment company under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and qualifies as a Part I UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities). 

The Company has adopted an “umbrella structure”, which allows it to offer investors within the same investment vehicle, a choice of investments in one or more sub-funds (each “sub-fund” and collectively the “sub-funds”) in respect of which a separate portfolio of investments is held, which are distinguished by their specific investment objectives, policies and/or currency of denomination.

The Target Fund is a sub-fund under the Company. The Target Fund was launched on 18 September 2009 and the total fund size of the Target Fund was USD64.50 million as at 29 April 2011. The Target Fund is regulated by Luxembourg Supervisory Authority, the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (“CSSF”).

BGF-ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY INCOME FUND

The Target Fund seeks an above average income from its equity investments without sacrificing long term capital growth. The Target Fund invests at least 70% of its total assets in equity securities of companies domiciled in, or exercising the predominant part of their economic activity in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan. Predominant part of the economic activity generally means that a major portion of a company’s business (which includes but is not limited to the company’s sales, earnings or assets) is derived from or located in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan relative to that particular company’s business derived from or located in other regions. The remaining 30% of the total assets may be invested in financial instruments of companies or issuers of any size in any sector of the economy globally.

AmAsia Pacific Equity Income is suitable for investors who seek:

• regular income from their investment;
• Long Term capital growth on their investment;
• participation in the upside potential of the Asia Pacific ex-Japan market; and
• medium to high risk investment vehicle.

Source: Fund Prospectus

New Fund: Public Strategic SmallCap Fund and Public Enterprises Bond Fund

Public Mutual today launched two new funds, namely Public Strategic SmallCap Fund (PSSCF) and Public Enterprises Bond Fund (PENTBF), and categorized as equity growth and bond fund respectively.

Public Strategic SmallCap Fund seeks to achieve capital appreciation over the medium to long term period through investments primarily in companies with small market capitalization, by investing in stocks with market capitalization of up to RM1.25bn at the point of purchase. The fund may also invest in companies which at the point of purchase form the bottom 15% of the cumulative market capitalization of the market which the stock is listed on, although the fund will focus its investments in the domestic market.

Funds' key data were shown at the end of this post...

To achieve increased diversification, the fund may invest up to 30% of its NAV in selected foreign markets if the returns are assessed to be promising. The fund generally maintains equity exposures within a range of 70% to 98% against its NAV, while balance in fixed income securities and liquid assets.

On the other hand, Public Enterprises Bond Fund seeks to provide annual income through investments in fixed income securities and money market instruments, by investing at least 75% of its NAV in sovereign bonds and corporate bonds issued by entities with total assets exceeding RM3bn at the point of purchase. To achieve diversification, the fund may invest up to 30% of its NAV in foreign fixed income securities.

What would be the credit ratings?

The bonds invested must have minimum credit rating of BBB for long-term instruments and P1 for short-term instruments as rated by local or foreign rating agency, at the point of purchase.

PENTBF Specific Benefits 

The fund allows the investor access to the bond market, which is usually inaccessible to the average investor as the standard transaction block amounts to RM5bn. Through this bond fund, it may potentially produce returns that are generally higher than fixed deposits.

Source: Public Mutual and Funds' prospectus

RHBRI: 4Q11 Earnings Review and Market Strategy

In tandem with the moderating economic growth trend, corporate earnings remained weak in 4Q 2011. Of the 113 reported earnings that we cover, 55 of the results (48.7% of the total) were within our expectations, 33 below projections (29.2% of the total) and 25 above forecasts (22.1%) (see Table 1). Against the consensus numbers, 44.2% of the reported earnings were within expectations, 38.1% below and 17.7% above projections (see Table 2). Sequentially, net EPS for the FBM KLCI stocks under our coverage weakened back to +1.7% qoq and +2.8% yoy in the 4Q, from +8.9% qoq and +12.4% yoy in the previous quarter (see Chart 1).

However, the downgrade to upgrade ratio has improved significantly to 1.07 times, from 1.65 times in the previous quarter. Overall, 2011 has been a year where Corporate Malaysia suffered from slowing sales and falling utilisation rates. This, coupled with the trend of higher costs, resulted in falling margins for many companies under our coverage. Consequently, normalised net EPS growth for the FBM KLCI stocks under our coverage slowed sharply from 20.9% in 2010 to +4.7% in 2011. The sharp slowdown in EPS growth, however, partly reflected the higher base effect as well as the plunge in Tenaga’s earnings arising from the gas curtailment issue. Excluding Tenaga, our 2011’s normalised net EPS for the FBM KLCI stocks has slowed down less significantly to +10.1%, from +21.2% in 2010.

Businesses Turning More Upbeat

What’s worth highlighting is that Corporate Malaysia are becoming less pessimistic and expect their business prospects to be stable with prospects of it turning up gradually as the year progresses. Likewise, we expect almost all sectors to record flat or improved earnings in 1Q 2012, with the exception of transport and semiconductor sectors. In our view, earnings of the transportation companies will still likely to be weighed down by slower economic growth and rising fuel costs. Whilst we also expect the semiconductor industry to suffer weak earnings in the 1Q, its outlook should improve from 2Q as cost rationalisation and stronger chip sales will likely translate into a significant improvement in earnings thereafter.

Meanwhile, we have seen more aggressive inventory write-down by companies, particularly amongst the steel product manufacturers. At the same time, banks could have also made pre-emptive provisions for loan impairment. Consequently, barring unforeseen circumstances, the downside risk to corporate earnings may not be as significant moving forward and analysts have turned less pessimistic in their assumptions for earnings projections.

Earnings Revised Up

Overall, we have adjusted some of the assumptions, translating to an upward revision in our 2012’s normalised net EPS growth for the FBM KLCI stocks under our coverage to +12.3% (see Table 3), from +10.3% previously (as reflected in our 2012 Market Outlook & Strategy Report dated 16 December, 2011). Excluding Tenaga, our 2012’s normalised net EPS for the FBM KLCl stocks has also been revised up to 8.8%, from 7.8% two months ago. The upward revisions in earnings were more significant in the oil & gas, consumer and utilities sectors (see Table 4). Similarly, our 2013 earnings estimate for the KLCI benchmark has been tweaked up slightly to 7.9% (+7.0% ex-Tenaga), from +7.3% (+5.5% ex-Tenaga) previously.

General Election Will Create Volatility,

Not Likely To Be A Game Changer

On the local front, a key event that will have significant bearing to the equity market is the impending general election. There are strong market expectations that the country’s general election (due in March 2013) will be held any time soon. Given what happened during the previous general elections on 8 March 2008 where the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (BN), lost two-thirds majority, there are fears that if BN were to lose a simple majority, the local bourse could suffer a major temporary setback. This is on account of uncertainty in the continuity of the country’s economic policies that could slow down the implementation of the economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We, however, believe that the likelihood of this happening is low.

Market Strategy :

Buy On Dips With Increasing Focus On Recovery Sectors

Whilst not all the external risk factors have gone away and the impending general election locally could also create uncertainty for the local bourse, the global economic recession risk is receding. Consequently, we are turning more positive on the market. Nevertheless, as fundamentals are just starting to improve, earnings will still need to play catch up for stocks with rich valuations before the market can scale new heights.

Consequently, the risk of a market pullback and consolidation in the near term is still high although we believe that any volatility in the market would provide opportunity for investors to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness. We are also turning more positive on cyclical sectors that are poised for recovery, although investors’ risk perceptions can still change very quickly should situation turn out to be worse than expected. As a result, we would still recommend investors to hold some defensive stocks that have strong cash flows to pay sustainable dividends. A list of our top picks is reflected in table below, which includes “buy on weakness” tactical holdings.

Source: RHB Research Institute report

OSK Strategy and Outlook (Feb 2012)

Global Rally ex Malaysia. While global markets rallied in Jan 2012 to post their best January performance since 1994, Malaysia languished as an exception among all the major markets in East Asia, thus strangely validating our Sell call on the Malaysian market in January. Globally, the economic outlook in the US remained stable with 66% of companies that reported earnings thus far beating estimates. While the situation was different in Europe with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) losing its AAA rating with S&P, nonetheless, the slush of liquidity unveiled by the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) allowed European markets to rally accordingly as bond yields in Italy declined dramatically.

Takeover spare continues. While December saw the privatization offers for KFC, QSR and YTL Cement as well as rumours of Proton’s stake sale by Khazanah, January saw more of the same including:

1. DRB-Hicom acquiring Khazanah’s 42.7% stake in Proton for RM5.50 a share.
2. Can One acquiring a 32.9% stake in Kian Joo for RM1.65 a share
3. Samling Strategic Corporation’s plans to privatise Lingui and Glenealy at an indicative price of RM1.63 and RM7.50 per share respectively.

Comeback kings. Top Gainers for January were comeback kings which had languished in

2011 but which were either driven by fundamentals (such as JCY) or rumours (such as Maybulk). Sector-wise, Tech (driven by JCY) and Transport (driven by Maybulk and MAS) as well as construction (by Mudajaya and Gamuda) gave the best returns for the month.

OUTLOOK: BETTER TO BE NIMBLY FLEXIBLE THAN DOGMATICALLY WRONG

Right but still… While we were correct in our calls for the market in Jan 2012, calling a SELL on the broad market and choosing “alternative” Buys as our Top 5 Buys for the month, still the market performed better than we had expected while global markets soared despite a patchy month of headlines. While equity markets do tend to outperform in January given the re-balancing of portfolios in a new year, the strength of the market thus far has taken us by surprise.

Be prepared for an upgrade. If indeed the KLCI performs well over the next 15 days inline with a global rally, we would be forced to rethink our bearish view for 1H12. Instead, we may upgrade our call on the market to a NEUTRAL from the current Sell, and may well promote more cyclical sectors such as Oil & Gas and Construction. While the market may subsequently turn south after a 1Q rally, still the flush of liquidity in the system may keep it resilient for most of the year. For now, we remain Defensive with Consumer stocks and other defensive mid-cap plays likely to outperform still in the short term.

Top Buys are Defensives with Good Results expected. 

With February being a results seasons month, we go back to fundamentals to select our Top Buys. Four of our Top 5 “Alternative” Buys outperformed the KLCI in January, namely Sarawak Oil Palms, Supermax, JCY and Old Town. For February, therefore, our selection of Top Buys for the month of February is mainly culled from these expected defensive out-performers, namely:

1. KPJ Healthcare – While results for the 4Q are typically not stellar (doctors tend to go on holidays and patients tend to postpone treatments where possible given the festive season), the excitement surrounding the upcoming listing of Integrated Healthcare Holdings could be enough to spur the share price upwards.
2. Malaysia Building Society (MBSB) – We are expecting a strong set of results for the company for 4Q11 and the recent civil servant pay hike in 2012 should mean management should provide a decent enough outlook going forward.
3. QL Resources – After two quarters of lackluster earnings due to poor fish catch in Sabah, we understand the catch improved in 4Q11. Also, expansion plans in Indonesia and Vietnam are largely on track.
4. Media Chinese – Expecting the best ever quarterly results in 4Q11, we still see many catalysts for ad spending in 2012 including the General Elections, 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012.
5. Padini – Our new Top Buy in the Consumer Retail space, a recent visit confirms that the company has an excellent profit track record, solid management, a good growth story (in the form of value fashion outlet Brands Outlet) and cheap valuations (below 10x forward PER). What’s not to like?

Source: OSK Research

Annual Strategy 2012 by TA Securities

2011 had triggered a wave of unwanted chain effects, which would not languish but resonate further into 1H12. While Japan is recovering from the worst ever tsunami and nuclear disaster, and oil prices stabilized after the unrest in the Middle East, conditions in Europe are expected to worsen before stabilizing.

Global Economy – Risk Factors Extending into 2012

Positive news flows on drastic measures to restore confidence in Europe and maintain the credit ratings of core economies could boost market sentiment in early 1Q12 and push the index to test the all‐time high of 1,597. However, the reality check on the implication of European austerity measures and rising market risk premium due to the 13th General Election (GE) could push the index around 1,200 levels in 1H12 based on a minus two standard deviation from its last decade’s historical mean of 16.6x.

A revival should ensue in the following months due to oversold conditions and anticipation of a subsequent recovery in Eurozone economy by mid‐2013 as markets move ahead by about six months. Our end‐2012 target is 1,520 based on a mid‐cycle PER of 13x.

Malaysia – Not Insulated

In the first nine months of 2011, the Malaysian economy registered a modest growth of 5.1% YoY thanks to the robust domestic demand and strong exports. In some ways, despite the turbulent external environment, rebuilding and reconstruction activities in Japan had helped spur Malaysia’s exports advancement during 3Q11. Nevertheless, the external sector is expected to remain challenging in 4Q11 before embracing a slowdown in 2012 amid the budget deficit cuts in the European Union, the slow economic rebound in the US and the anticipated softening of China’s economy. Hence, we expect Malaysia’s economic growth to narrow to 4.6% in 2012 following a 5.2% growth expectation for 2011.

On the fiscal front, the financial status of the Federal Government may continue to improve in tandem with the embodiment of fiscal prudence and boost in revenue. Overall consumer prices are expected to increase by 2.5% while monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative (OPR stable at 3.0%). A potential wild card is the reform agenda initiated by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. Factors that would accelerate reform include:

1. increasing political consciousness and demographic shift,
2. reenergizing investment in the local economy, and
3. strengthening fiscal credibility. Sectors that could benefit are Banking, Property and Power.

Political Risk?

We strongly believe the country’s 13th general election will be due in 1QFY12, especially before the parliament convenes in March. This could be a major dampener upon dissolution of the parliament as investors would exit and remain on the sideline until the outcome is known and the implications are digested. The ruling coalition is expected to retain its victory but its grip on parliamentary and state seats are expected to weaken. Thus, the effectiveness in implementation of policy reforms and domestic expansionary measures could be compromised and will be closely watched in 2012. With the backdrop of slowing external demand, spending on domestic infrastructure, construction and oil & gas sectors would be the key focus in 2012.

Investors should take profit on any rally over the next three months and wait to cherry pick. Traders should take short‐term positions to trade, mainly on blue chips, in anticipation of a year‐end and New Year rallies and exit by March. We expect higher downside risks in 1H12 as the flow of negative economic data, earnings downgrades and possible 13th general election hurt investor sentiment.

Top Picks for 2012

We reiterate defensive approach in stock selection in current uncertain period and bottom up approach in choosing value picks. Preferred buy picks are KIANJOO (TP: RM2.58), SEG (TP: RM2.51), SUNWAY (TP: RM3.16), BJTOTO (TP: RM4.92), BSTEAD (TP: RM6.21), KPJ (TP: RM5.04), GENM (TP: RM4.50), SAPCRES (TP: RM4.93), GAMUDA (TP: RM3.71) and SIME (TP: RM10.12).

Source: TA Securities

RHBRI's Stock Watch (December 2011)

In contrast, the better-than-expected results of Maybank came mainly from lower-than-expected credit cost and minority interest charged, partly offset by weaker-than-expected non-interest income. In addition, the change in accounting treatment for the recognition of profit equalisation reserve also helped lift earnings.

The stronger-than-expected revenue growth of DiGi, on the other hand, came from stronger data and prepaid voice, aided by festivities, as well as improvement in consensus, were above our forecast on account of better-than-expected EBITDA margins on the back of lower other operating costs and supplies & materials expenses, as well as lower effective tax rate.

During the quarter, BAT experienced stronger-than-expected industry volume growth, while earnings of Genting Plantations were boosted by stronger-than-expected increase in FFB production.

The Under-performers...

Sector-wise, earnings of the semiconductor, building materials, construction, motor, transportation, oil & gas and healthcare continued to disappoint. In addition, the insurance sector which reported stronger-than-expected results in the previous two quarters, succumbed to higher-than-expected claims ratio (as in the case of MNRB Holdings and Kurnia Asia) and lower investment income (LPI Capital) and disappointed this time round.

In the semiconductor/IT sector, both MPI and Unisem sufferred from lower revenue and EBITDA margins on account of lower contribution from higher margin chip packages. The results of Notion Vtec, however, were above our forecast due to better EBITDA margins and operating income from the sales of raw material scrap.

Within the building materials sector, steel players continued to suffer from downturn in the industry and margin contraction as a result of lower selling prices of steel products. Out of the five steel manufacturers we cover, two earnings were below forecasts (CSC Steel and Ann Joo Resources), one in line (Kinsteel) and two above projections (Hiap Teck and Perwaja). In addition, the two cement manufacturers (Lafarge and YTL Cement) also experienced lower-than-expected sales volume and prices on account higher cement price rebates.

Of the eight construction stocks that we cover, two results were below our expectations (MRCB and TRC Synergy) and the other six within our forecasts (Gamuda, IJM, WCT, HSL, Fajarbaru and Eversendai). The variance of MRCB’s earnings against our forecast came largely from lower-than-expected billings for both construction and property divisions, and to a ceratin extent, the lower-than-expected margins. The earnings of TRC Synergy, on the other hand, were dragged down by higher start-up costs from infrastructure projects, particularly the RM950m “package A” main contract of the Kelana Jaya LRT Line extension project.

Similarly, results of the oil & gas sector were also below forecasts as four out of the 10 stocks we cover reported disappointing results (MMHE, Wah Seong, KNM and Perdana Petroleum), five within expectations (Petronas Chemicals, Petronas Gas, Wah Seong, Kencana and SapCrest) and one above forecast (Dayang Enterprise). As mentioned earlier, earnings of MMHE were below projection due to a drop in revenue from the E&C division. During the quarter, Wah Seong’s results were dragged down by forex losses on its contracts on hand and higher-than-expected minority interest, while that of KNM by provisions, likely for cost overruns incurred under legacy contracts won in 2009 to 1H FY2010. The earnings of Perdana Petroleum were hit by lower utilization of the company’s vessels and losses from associate,

Petra Energy due to the Kumang Cluster project. In contrast, Dayang’s earnings were above forecast, boosted by better-than-expected margins from the marine charter division and lower-than-expected interest cost.

Market Strategy: Stay Defensive

Despite the deepening euro debt crisis and a struggling US economy, global equities have been more resilient than what we had expected. However, in the absence of a concrete solution for the euro debt crisis and given that US politicians are too divided to resolve a dispute over taxes and spending, concerns are growing that things could turn from bad to worse in the months ahead. Consequently, we believe investors are still in for a volatile year ahead. Under such circumstances, we continue to advise caution, and this is reflected in our top picks, which include companies with stable cash flows and above-market yields.

Source: RHBRI report