Should or Would Government Privatizing MAS? (Aug 2013)

Both of our ex & current Prime Minister already voiced their views regarding this matter. Yesterday, our ex-PM said Government should SELL MAS if it can be run more effectively by private sector. Meanwhile, when asked, our current PM said there was no plan to privatize MAS now because it was on track to its turn around plan under the helm of new management. So?

In fact, this was like a million ringgit question for many speculative investors. Maybe, they or YOU were hoping for the deal to materialize if you bought the shares just recently. Anyway, it won't be as easy as you might think.

1. MAS is a national carrier. It carries the national flag wherever it goes. (Some more, national day is approaching now)
2. How much to privatized? Especially for a still loss-making company... Definitely, Government won't get much if MAS being privatized now.

However, everything is possible given the facts below:

1. National company is just a company anyway. We have just witnessed the privatization of KTM, POS and PROTON few years back.
2. Government's coffer is more important. You can't keeps on letting the pumping money to save a company. Why not let go the 'vampire' of money?

The score now is 2-2. Anything to add?

* Hint: RHB research puts in a target price of RM0.43 for MAS in its report dated 25th July 2013. It this was the offered price, would you satisfy?

Conclusion:

It depends on whom being asked this question. If posted to share investors, the answer would be YES because you most probably can profit from it (if higher premium was offered). However, the answer might be the opposite if posted to Government.

[Property] 3 Critical Factors to Watch Out by Year End (July 2013)

Ever since the property boom started in 2009, right after the global financial crisis, investors were laughing to the bank. But, can these sustain until next year? Many analysts doubt so. Why?

The most crucial determining factors might uncover itself in the next few months, approaching year end. In short, we have summed out to the below 3 critical factors:

1. Banning of DIBS
   This is not a secret anymore. Speculation rife up recently, saying that BNM may ban the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) by year end. BNM is studying the implications of DIBS which benefiting speculators more than serious buyers. Note: Singapore already banned such scheme few years back.
   
   
2. Interest Rate hike
   BNM also may revised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), which determine the cost of financing in the country including Base Lending Rate (BLR) for mortgage loan. A 25 basis points hike was expected. This will affect all type of loans, except fixed interest loans. Let's get prepare for higher monthly loan installment amount.
   
   
3. Higher RPGT
   Coming this 2014 budget to be tabled on 25th Oct, watch out for higher Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT). Currently, it was 15% for first two years and 10% for disposal from 3rd year to 5th year. Note: RPGT was much higher before 2008.

In our view, once DIBS was banned, developer no need to bear the interest, financier no need to bear the risk, new launching properties should be selling at lower price. Then, this is bad news for existing property, especially bought under DIBS before?

Example, phase one selling at RM500k under DIBS, phase two selling at RM500k without DIBS. No effect?

Think again... More supply now releasing for secondary market, assuming phase two also selling at same price, which is very good already. Right?

Understanding US Treasury & Yields

Just when the whole world coming for a rout, only US treasury yields shoot up to multi-months high. Investors might wondering why this happen. Some of our readers are posting these kind of question to us. We think this article might helps.

US Treasury = US Government Bond

Actually, we are referring to US Government 10 Years Bond. Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government (in this case US) and is denominated in the country's own currency (USD). Bonds issued by national government in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.

Also, government bonds were usually referred to as risk-free bonds, because governments could easily devalue their currencies or raise taxes to redeem the bond at maturity. 

The Story of US Treasury Yields...

Just like Base-Lending-Rate (BLR) for Malaysia, everything from mortgages to corporate loans in US depends on US treasury yields. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs. To stimulate the US economy, Federal Reserve had came out with various Quantitative Easing (QE) actions to bring down the said yields, allowing borrowers access to cheap funding. How to bring down yields? Federal Reserve will buy back US treasuries, thus, flooding the market with money. The side effect was a weakening USD.

However, all things will change 360 degree, if Federal Reserve start to slow down or totally stop their so called QE3. This is what happening now, creating uncertainties to global markets.

What's Wrong for an Economist to Predict the Upcoming Election?

I am writing this post during midnight after I came across a report saying that Bank Islam chief economist suspended after predicting that opposition will win the upcoming election. As usual, Finance Malaysia would NOT include political elements in its blog post. And, we would like to stress here again, that we are discussing this topic WITHOUT any political elements. Then, what are we talking here?

FREEDOM of VOICE & OPINION

I knew that I could not sleep if I didn't speak up for En. Azrul Anwar. We are not here to defend anyone, neither to offend any parties. But, we should open up our mind, and accept other opinions with open heart. In this matter, the said bank is losing its credibility and reputation by suspending one of its key staff --- just because of his prediction. Why can't he speak freely? Will the bank lose its banking license because of this?

Does he answer the question wrongly? NO... It's a prediction only, there is no right or wrong here.

Everyone knew that political changes is the key risk for Malaysian economy this year. Can an economist avoid this topic? Or, should they answer the same question with the same biased answer? Otherwise, who will listen to their opinions? Then, why a company hires an economist to represent them in the first place?

Funny... That's why Finance Malaysia blog is another channel for investors and readers to get 3rd party opinions and views. Blogging industry will prosper even faster, because the demand is there. Readers DO NOT want to read biased newspaper or news portal anymore. Thanks for your support. Finance Malaysia supports Azrul Anwar.

ETP update: 10 Key Achievements (Nov 2012)

Below is the 10 key achievements highlighted by CEO of Pemandu, that demonstrates the positive inroads of the ETP:

1. Projects will be implemented within the 12 focused National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) and also implement 51 Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRI) to ensure competitiveness will flourish.
   
2. Whilst Malaysia's GNI per capita was only US$6,700 in 2009, it grew dramatically by 45% in 2011. (Target is US$15,000 by 2020)
   
   
3. GDP grew by 5.3% year-to-date. This is significant, considering Singapore's growth of only 1.3% while neighboring countries recorded the following GDP growth:
• Thailand 3.0%
• South Korea 1.6%
• Taiwan 1.0%
• Hong Kong 1.3%
  
4. Economy continues to grow to reach new GDP and GNI records in 2011, with Government achieved its highest revenue in history with RM185 billion in 2011, allowing the Government to implement many programmes, including those under GTP such as BRIM1 and BRIM2.
   
5. Private investment continues to achieve robust growth. As of Sept 2012, private investment grew by 25.5% yoy, reaching a new record of RM112.2 billion.
   
   
   
6. Domestic private consumption continues healthy growth of 8.2% year to date, an evidence of growing disposable income by Malaysians.
   
7. FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI market capitalization scaled new historic high on 1st Nov of 1,675.69 points, with market capital Rm1.46 trillion.
   
   
   
8. Consistent delivery of fiscal deficit reduction from 6.6% of GDP in 2009, 5.6% in 2010, 4.8% in 2011 and further reductions are planned in 2013 and beyond. Debt ceiling was capped at 55% of GDP.
   
   
   
9. Recognition of Malaysia's tremendous progress by external parties such as World Bank (ranking in Doing Business), AT Kearney's FDI confidence index, IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, WEF Global Competitiveness and CNN ranked KL as 4th best shopping cities.
   
10. Achievements against the KPI were at 123% in 2011 and 94% this year

Source: etp.pemandu.gov.my (summarized by Finance Malaysia blog for ease of reading)

What is US "Fiscal Cliff" actually?

When everyone thought that US and the world will be better if Obama won his presidential re-election again, world equities markets today declines with US being the most serious market by dropping more than 2%. What's the reason? Answer: Fiscal Cliff ?

Hmmm... Then, what is fiscal cliff actually which many of us on the street do not even heard about this new term before. No worry, Finance Malaysia blog did his homework over here. Share this out if you like.

Understanding Fiscal Cliff...

The US fiscal cliff refers to the effect of a series of enacted legislation which, if unchanged, will result in tax increases, spending cuts, and a corresponding reduction in the budget deficit. With Obama retaining the presidency, it sends the signal that it's US government policies will pretty much stay the same as previous 4 years. Ben Bernanke will stay as Fed chairman, which also meaning that the open-ended liquidity and bond buying programs will continue, fueling risk taking appetite of equity and fixed income markets for the foreseeable future.

Budget deficits, projected through 2022. The "CBO Baseline" shows the effects of the fiscal cliff under current law. The "Alternative Scenario" represents what would happen if Congress extends the Bush tax cuts and repeals the Budget Control Act-mandated spending reductions beyond the end of 2012.

However, Obama has to resume his duties in a very likely divided congress, with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate. With this political deadlock and the looming "Fiscal Cliff", that's the reason why US market sink this morning.

Good or Bad?

If you understand it, the so called "Fiscal Cliff" is not something bad, in which its purpose is to reduce budget deficit of US. What investors worried was the measures being taken will slow the already slow growth rate of US economy, subsequently the world economies including Asia. But, without the intention of reducing budget deficit of US, would you be more confident? Of course NOT, because US would never able to not walk out from the brushes. Right?

By now, you should be able to understand the term. Meanwhile, some analysts have argued that "fiscal slope" or "fiscal hill" would be more appropriate because while the cumulative economic effect over all would be substantial, it would not be felt immediately but rather gradually as the weeks and months went by. Hahaha...

Budget 2013: Election or Rakyat centric?

General election is around the corner. External environment was not so promising, following the no ending of European debt crisis, world economic slowdown, and recent tension between China and Japan. I believe all of these would be some key factors being taking into consideration to formulate the Malaysia Budget 2013.

Goodies? Bonus? Cash handout?

Themed as "Prospering The Nation, Enhancing Well-Being of the Rakyat: A Promise Fulfilled". Our prime minister, who is also Finance Minister, tabled the 2013 Budget at Dewan Rakyat yesterday. Over here, Finance Malaysia blog would only touches on some key points:

• Economic growth projected to expand between 4.5% - 5.5%
• Federal Government's revenue in 2013 is estimated to increase to RM208.6 billion
• Continuation of BR1M of RM500 to households earning not more than RM3,000 a month and also extended the aid to cover a payment of RM250 for single unmarried individuals aged 21 and above, earnings not more than RM2,000 a month
• RM 16 million a year group insurance scheme for registered hawkers and small businesses for coverage of up to RM5,000
• FM: Once again goodies were dished out to created a feel-good factor for govt and we doubted whether Msia could achieves the 4% budget deficit target in 2013. Anyway, govt could still succeed by increasing the revenue by using these goodies. How? Very simple, that's to entice the non-registered self-employed and businesses to registered so that they are accountable for their earnings.

Spurring retail bond/sukuk market:

• DanaInfra Nasional Bhd to issue retail bonds worth RM300million by end-2012 to finance MRT development projects
• Additional expenses incurred in issuance of retail bonds and retail sukuk to be given double deduction for a period of 4 years from YA2012 to YA2015
• Individuals investors given stamp duty exemption on instruments relating to transactions of retail bonds and retail sukuk
• FM: It's very clear and straight forward that the govt want to see the soon-to-be launched retail bond/sukuk market to prosper, thus, attracting more foreign funds to the country to make it more vibrant and liquid.

Youth-centric offers:

• A one-off rebate of RM200 for the purchase of one unit of 3G smartphone from authorized dealers for youths aged between 21 to 30 years old with monthly income of RM3,000 and below.
• PTPTN loans: 20% discount for full repayment of loan; 10% discount for regular repayment.
• RM250 1Malaysia book voucher for students studying at institutions of higher learning
• FM: It seems too good to be true for PTPTN borrowers. But, it was attractive for probably 1% of them only. Why? We must remember that they borrow because they doesn't have money in the first place, not because they want to leverage. Do you get my meaning? Or, does govt scared if opposition coalition will void all outstanding loans if they took over?

Addressing the skyrocketing property prices:

• RM500 million by PR1MA to build 80,000 houses in major locations nationwide with selling price ranging between RM100,000 and RM400,000 per unit. Among the locations are KL, Shah Alam, JB, Seremban and Kuantan.
• MyFirst Home Scheme will be enhanced by increasing the income limit for individual loans from RM3,000 to RM5,000 per month or joint loans of husband and wife of up to RM10,000 per month.
• Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) for properties disposed within 2 years will be taxed at 15% (up from 10%) and 10% for between 3rd to 5th year (up from 5%), whereas other term remained unchanged.
• FM: For us, we think that 15% RPGT is still too low if compared to pre-2007, where RPGT for first 2 years disposal was as high as 30% and 25%. Meanwhile, MyFirst Home Scheme was very tough to get it, as far as we concerned. Once again, good luck to those potential property buyers.

Changes to personal income tax:

• Individual income tax rate to be reduced by 1% for each grouped annual income tax exceeding RM2,500 and RM50,000.
• Tax relief on children's higher education scheme (SPNN) increased to RM6,000 per person (from RM4,000 previously).
• FM: The 1% tax reduction seems more effective to help out those mid-income earners, although it's not much. However, we are disappointed once again for the unchanged REITs withholding tax structure which makes M-REITs less attractive compared to regional REITs.

Government servants is the BIG winner AGAIN!!!

• Minimum pension to be increased to RM820 for those who had served the govt for at least 25 years. More than 50,000 pensioners benefited.
• 1.5 months bonus for civil servants.
• FM: Well... Nothing much we can say about it. This is a govt budget. What's wrong if govt servants being the beneficiary? But, should it be again and again? Hmmm...

"Stocks-to-watch" for the coming Monday:

• Genting, GENM, JTI, BAT on the surprise unchanged sin taxes
• Construction companies on the River of Life projects, EPP projects and schools upgrade
• Consumer related players on the expected extra spending by govt servants with bonuses
• Low cost housing developers (etc. Hua Yang) for possible contracts by PR1MA
• Financial institutions with investment banking arm for the launching of retail bond/sukuk market

Can Malaysia Trust 'Mat Rempit'?

First of all, Happy Merdeka to all Malaysians. Yup, we love peace and prosperity as mentioned by our beloved prime minister. 55th years of independence would not come true without unity of people from various races. No doubt, we Malaysians are from various background. Yet, we have come together, good or bad, to shape our nation until what we already achieve today. Anyway, Finance Malaysia hopes our nation can transform itself by realizing the 2020 vision "Developed Nation".

Just when everyone was celebrating today, I came across one news titled "Mat Rempit to help fight crime" and my writing instinct once again being activated. Fighting crime by collaborating with Mat Rempit? This is the first reaction I believed many readers would asked!!!

Don't we know that Mat Rempit were those who rides their motorcycle dangerously?

Don't we know that Mat Rempit were those riders that endangered the life of other road users?

And, I really don't know how and why our government came out this "think-out-of-the-box" idea!!!

Two Immediate Side Effects

Okay. We try to be neutral now. Maybe Mat Rempit really can help us to fight crime, and maybe they got "lubang" to detect crime, we have come out with these few immediate side effects once launched.

1. Privileged. They got these special privilege to join police personnel. How about other "gang"? Are we accepting them in our society as a good rempit?
2. Pride. Exactly, don't you think that being a Mat Rempit in Malaysia was so "cool"? This was like a statement to recruit more people to join them rempits everywhere. I'm not sure how effective they can in fighting crime, but what i'm sure of is this would attract more youngsters to rempit.

If they are really good, why in the first place become a rempit? Why don't they join our police personnel to formally fight crime? And the last point was this idea was first mooted by one political party to engage with mat rempits. And now this was mooted by Home ministry, in other words Malaysia Government. Hey dude, how did foreigners look at Malaysia on this matter? Positively or negatively? I think majority of Malaysians have the unpleasant answer...

Previously

Nowadays

Impact of minimum wage policy from an economics perspective

Continue from previous post on "New Minimum Wage Policy", here we analyze the impact from an economics perspective. Many people said the new policy will jack-up the inflation figures due to higher production costs. Subsequently, it will dampen the GDP growth numbers. Is it true?

The impact on inflation and GDP growth is ambiguous. Setting a minimum wage would boost wages and consumption for workers who remain employed (likely to be the more productive workers, working in companies that have higher profit margin), but would hurt the profitability of businesses that are labor intensive and could potentially lead to higher unemployment rate.

The impact on growth will likely be a net negative in the short-run as it might result in raised cost without an increase in productivity. In the long-run, this policy may bring about a positive impact if it succeeds in encouraging workers to upgrade their skills or for companies to invest more capital to boost productivity.

From an economic standpoint, the minimum wage policy is not the best way to help the lower income households. A gradual phase-in of the minimum wage should help reduce some of the negative impact.

Unless the introduction of the minimum wage policy leads to a widespread upward adjustment in wages, there shouldn't be a significant impact on inflation.

Some SMEs claim that a minimum wage would bankrupt small firms which rely on cheap labor, from Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh. The Malaysian Federation of Employers, whose members collectively hire 2 million workers, said it wants an exemption for the smallest employers and for the policy to be implemented over several years. Ex-PM Mahathir Mohd, who is very influential in the political scene, is also against the minimum wage policy as he believes that it would hurt Malaysia’s competitiveness, especially during economic challenging times.

Source: Credit Suissue report dated 19th March 2012

Minimum Wage Policy: Pain for SMEs?

Malaysia Prime Minister promised that there will be an important announcement on 1 May 2012 (Labor Day). Without much thought, it's very obvious that it was closely related to "Minimum Wage Policy" which already echoed by Government to win the heart of public. However, it receives much objections from private sectors, especially small-and-medium enterprises (SME) claiming that the new policy would impact on their balance sheets drastically. Really?

Impact of a minimum wage policy

As pressure mounts on the government to ensure that private sector workers in Malaysia earn salaries above the poverty level of RM760, Malaysia could set the minimum wage at RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for East Malaysia. According to World Bank, Malaysia's wages have risen by a CAGR of 2.6% over the past 10 years, while inflation has risen at a higher pace of 3.0-3.5%.

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Who is the BIG winner?

The new policy would benefit some 3.2million workers or about 1/4 of Malaysia's workforce. It was believe that foreign workers would also enjoy a minimum wage salary. Obviously, foreign workers could be the biggest beneficiaries, as they are the most likely group of workers who are currently paid below the proposed minimum wage levels.

Which Sectors could be the Worst hit?

According to MIER, the sectors which have the highest percentage of workers in the lower income bracket are listed below. This is no surprise as these industries have the highest proportion of foreign labor.

• Manufacturing (e.g. glove, food, wood-related and electronics)
• Retail (e.g. department stores and supermarkets)
• Hotel, F&B (e.g. restaurants, hawker centers and small eateries)
• Security and Landscape
• Agriculture including plantations, aquaculture and fishing industries

However, it was understand that the MNCs such as Nestle, AEON, Guinness and Carlsberg are already paying their general workers above the minimum wage levels. Meanwhile, local SMEs or manufacturing entities which rely heavily on foreign workers would be worst hit, such as Top Glove, Supermax and The Store, especially if they do not have pricing power to pass on the increased wage cost to their buyers. But, the graph below shows that Top Glove and Supermax may not be badly hit as mentioned above, due to its low weightage of cost on labor.

How about Palm Oil sector?

Luckily, the palm oil industry which rely heavily on foreign workers (1/3 of field workers), had already adjusted the salaries of their workers in 2011. So, it may not be as badly hit as the other sectors.

Next post, we look at the impact of the policy from an economies perspective. Stay tune.
Share this out if you felt that the info here is good for Malaysians. Thanks for your support.

Source: Credit Suisse, TA Research, Bloomberg, MIER

Should Government Abolish PTPTN Loans?

Once again, PTPTN (Malaysia National Higher Education Loan) came to the limelight lately with the wrong reasons. In conjunction with this, Finance Malaysia did a survey on Facebook Page asking our fans "Should Government Abolish PTPTN Loans?", and guess the answer given by majority of them? NO.

Emmm... What does this mean? It's pretty clear that majority of us thinks that PTPTN should be continue for the following reasons:

1. There is no FREE lunch in this world
2. Borrowers should repay what he borrows
3. The scheme did already help many financially distressed students pursuing tertiary education

Thanks for your participation in the survey. Yet, many readers keep asking Finance Malaysia, our view on this matter. Before answering you, we also highlighted that this blog is of freedom of speech, we're not political driven blog, and we tend to be political-neutral in writing. Below is our view on this issue:

1. We agreed that there is no free lunch, especially in Malaysia. We should change our mentality that Government owe us this and that things. We must put in our own efforts to make things happen, and Government's role is to facilitate the process to become easier and smoother. This is why PTPTN loan was offered at the beginning.
   
   
2. Regarding the interest rate charged, it's a mere 3% only. Does it really sky high? Definitely not. Why PTPTN charged 3%? This was because our inflation rate is around that figure. If you take last year inflation rate of 3.5% into calculation, PTPTN are making losses actually, although we repay back with 3% interest rate.
   
   
3. Without interest, anyone of us who qualify to go into varsities will take PTPTN loan, whether he/she is serious in his/her study or not. Why not borrow the money to spend, instead of study, if given free?
   
   
4. Without interest, what is the incentive for student to repay back the borrow amount as soon as possible? Without interest, I will be the one who use whatever money I have now to invest, do business, buy gadgets... last is PTPTN. Agree?
   
   
5. We believe this is one of the agenda purposely created by certain political parties to fish young voters, saying that they will abolish and cleared their outstanding PTPTN loan once they formed the new Government. (Please be neutral on this matter, then only think)
   
   
6. By writing-off the outstanding PTPTN loans amounting to billions of ringgit, Malaysia sure will went into financially distressed level. Then, all of the subsidies will be removed, public sector salary will be cut, all of us will protest because of this. Do you really want this to happen?
   
   

Anyway, this is one of the interesting preview running up to the anticipated general election. Finance Malaysia hopes that political parties from both sides should focus on things that really can benefiting the country. What's the point to form a new Government that will go into bankruptcy?

Before ending this posts, we must highlighted here that Government must clear the doubts by sorting it out fast. If not, many borrowers will wait and stop repayment in anticipating that Government will abolish it soon.

Another point was we lauded PTPTN's intention to reward those prompt and disciplined borrowers with a reduced 1% interest rate. However, why not PTPTN automatically reducing it without much hassle for borrowers to appeal? Now, borrowers must request > wait for revised terms and conditions agreement > print and sign > guarantors signatures > employers details > auto-deductions from salary > return back to PTPTN. Since these are eligible good paymasters, why not treati them automatically?

Why Government Should NOT Guarantee JCorp Debt Refinancing?

It's becoming confusing for many people, especially outsiders (non-Malaysian), as to the role of Government to Malaysian corporate. And, it had been more confusing when Government dishes out lots of Goodies to certain groups of people (as long as they are eligible voters) citing to help bring down the burden of Rakyat. Good reason though. However, many of us know that this may short-lived just because of the coming general election. Anyway, this is part of the political gimmick usually played around the world. Nothing's wrong.

One end, our Government targeted to bring down the deficit numbers by cutting subsidies like Petrol prices. But on the other end, it dishing our cash just like what announced during Budget 2012, citing Government had made encouraging improvements in collecting taxes. Then, why not bring down the budget deficit of the country first? Does few hundred ringgits really make huge different for people?

A BAD example set by JCorp?

The latest movements by Government in corporate world is by GURANTEEING a fundraising exercise by Johor Corporation (JCorp) that will help the state agency to meet its immediate debt obligations.

JCorp, the strategic investment arm of Johor, announced that it planned to issue a sukuk wakalah Islamic finance instrument worth RM 3billion to be directed at redeeming the state-owned corporation's outstanding bonds worth RM3.2billion maturing at end-July. This is not an usual treatment by Government in providing support for fundraising schemes directed at refinancing existing debt.

Subsidiaries of JCorp

Why this may Backfire?

1. Bankers and investment analysts said the Government's move for JCorp sets a potentially negative precedent because it could encourage other financially distressed state agencies to propose similar debt restructuring programs. (source: TheEdge)
2. Guaranteeing means Government is liable for the fundraising exercise when things turn sour.
3. Does Government study thoroughly before guaranteeing? If the said corporate perform well, why it needs Government's backing? Is it because of high debt to asset ratio that scared away financial institutions?

By looking at the stable of companies under the umbrella of JCorp, Finance Malaysia don't think that it will go burst easily. However, the above concerns must be addressed to avoid future backfire. When state agencies doesn't do well, it definitely will affect the economy, subsequently Government. This is just a wake up call for relevant parties. Let's jom KFC...

Why All of Us Must Care about 1Care Malaysia?

Heard about 1Care Malaysia healthcare plan? If no, then you must read this article thoroughly word by word. Because the the proposed healthcare system will drastically change the way we seek for treatment in the future. The main issue was "Is it viable to implement 1Care?".

Well, the intention is good for our community. The plan had a very beautiful definition as below:

But...

Concern is always there whenever Government want to implement something and that thing is managed solely by Government. Experience? Got (bad experience). Money? Got, but already drained somewhere (normally). You can't prevent Malaysians from worrying, especially when 1Care touches each and everyone of us for life.

What are the concerns?

1. Each person in different sector have different risk level. How to determine the amount of contributions of each contributor?
   
   
2. Subsequently, how to determine the benefits package each individual entitled to? If the benefits was based on the amount of contribution, then, our existing insurance system already functioning very well now.
   
   
3. Then, you can say that it was community-rated, not risk-rated. That's mean rich are subsidizing the poor, economically active to passive system. But, doesn't rich already pay taxes to government to subsidize them currently?
   
   
4. Level of services of hospitals and choices of hospitals. Can we seek treatment at any hospital, be it general or private hospitals? If not, it will again limit our choice.
   
   
5. Choice? Emm. The proposed 1Care is being made compulsory to all employees and employers to contribute (except government servants). Wait!!! Does this mean that private sector is subsidizing public sector?
   
   
6. A government agency was being set up to manage the pool of money collected from all of us. OMG!!! We are talking billions of ringgit per year. It's a huge huge huge amount which could bought over CIMB bank!!!

Once 1Care was implemented, the following sector will suffer:

1. Private sector. If the said 10% mandatory contribution by each employee is true, most salary based person will switch to personal loan, I think.
   
   
2. Retailers will suffer badly from less disposable income after the mandatory deduction of salary. No more 25% drop in car sales anymore. It's probably 90%.
   
   
3. Property market will slump. Don't forget that our loan applications now is based on net salary, which means deducting your 11% EPF + 10% 1Care + Socso + Tax. How much left?
   
   
4. Private healthcare system. Private hospitals have to lobby smartly to get involved in 1Care system to remain in business. Monopoly game means you have to "pay" more? Good Luck.
   
   
5. Private insurance companies and its agents. A big chunk of their medical policies will be terminated and a big chunk of premiums will flow to the new set up government agency. Thousands of agents will struggle to survive.

Then, why Government proposing 1Care Malaysia? Emm. I got many input from friends and professionals and below could be the 3 reasons behind 1Care:

1. Diversifying the problems of public healthcare system to private healthcare, so that private healthcare was forced to collaborate.
   
   
2. Reducing Government's burden, thus reducing budget deficit, by imposing mandatory contribution from everyone. For us, it's just like another form of income tax.
   
   
3. Hijacking the lucrative insurance business which was dominated by foreign companies (etc. Great Eastern, Allianz, AIA, Prudential, ING...) especially on medical policies. With 1Care, it could effectively grab the market share from them, entrusting government agency as the undisputed largest insurance company in Malaysia.

Finance Malaysia blog is just voicing out the concerns of general public for betterment of Malaysia going forward. Readers were welcome to give comment or feedback. Thanks.

Is it Viable for EPF to support Subprime Loan? (Feb2012)

In 2008, we have seen the catastrophic effect from the subprime mortgage loan in US. Even now, US is still struggling to fully recover from their worst financial crisis since Great Depression. The problems doesn't build in one day, in fact, it took years to snowball the problem. And, yet Malaysia seems like wanting to catch up with them by supporting the subprime loan. But, the unique part of our version is "using EPF monies"?

When news first broke out last month that EPF would be channelling RM1.5bil for a special public housing scheme, alarm bells sounded off for many contributors. Maybe EPF already knew the result for last year performance, it announced later that contributors are getting a decade-high dividend rate of 6%. Salute to EPF. Since EPF are doing so good even without the said "loan", then, why EPF have to take the risk to loan out to this scheme?

Afterthat, EPF published a statement claiming that the money is loaned to the Government, not to individuals. All the proceeds will go through a special purpose vehicle of Federal Territories Foundation (SPV FT Foundation) where terms and conditions are set.

YOU must be kidding, very obvious the end borrower was individuals, not Government. Where does the risk comes from? Ultimately, the individual borrowers are the one who determine the survival of the scheme.

What EPF gets?

For us, the most important detail that's available is 5.5% profit. The rest, it's very surface only without much details, such as the process of borrowers selections, criteria for loan application, and a lot of what if... Transparency is not there either.

No worry, Government can GUARANTEE the scheme mah!!! Yet, another question comes in. How does Government guaratee it? If something goes wrong to EPF monies, Government will use its money to compensate EPF?

Wait... Doesn't Government money belong to us too?

Any Hidden Agenda Behind the Sales of POS and PROTON?

Lately, there was a slew of divestment by Khazanah Nasional Bhd (Investment arm of Malaysia Government). And, the most recent one was the divestment of Proton stakes to DRB-Hicom. But, the strange part was DRB-Hicom was the winning bidder for Khazanah's stake in POS Malaysia last year too.

Questions have been pouring in to Finance Malaysia regarding this issue, such as, are there any linkages between the two national deals? Other than DRB-Hicom, there was none other better suitors? As such, we would like to give our opinion on this matter. (Just for your reading pleasure)

You have the Questions, We have the Answers

First, both POS and Proton were considered as "sunset" companies in their respective industry. Both were not managed well and fallen from their glamorous days. Just as many investors written them off from investment radar, DRB-Hicom comes into the picture. Frankly speaking, the only asset both companies have was Government's backing.

While POS has the monopoly status in its services, Proton being the national car maker was trying to monopolize too by merging with Perodua. It's been a hot debate on whether Proton and Perodua should merge for better synergies. Anyway, we think that they should remain status quo to creates a healthy competition for consumers benefits.

Idea of the year: Combining POS and Proton via Stamp?

Where is the money comes from?

Another question was on the financial soundness of DRB-Hicom to acquires both companies. We as investors knows that DRB-Hicom does not have much cash in hand (even after excessive borrowing). The 32.21% stake at RM3.60 per share in POS costing RM622.79mil. Then, how about the Proton stake which amounted to over RM1bil? It's like a snake swallowing a cow, then a buffalo within few months!!! Can you imagine?

Any Hidden Agenda?

After all this, Finance Malaysia comes out with a guessing questions on the two deals between DRB-Hicom and Khazanah. Anything to do with the upcoming general election? (Seems like everything was linked to GE nowadays) Does the Government scared of losing the next general election and preparing to divest some of its assets first? Then, to whom they should divest to? Of course, their allies, right? DRB-Hicom?

But, what if they won again and POS and Proton was sold? No worry, because their good ally will always be able to sell it back to them (potentially with good investment gains too). Then, Khazanah can re-list again both POS and Proton proudly. Is this the case?

Well, we're guessing only. And, once again, this is for your reading pleasure only. Don't take it seriously. Happy Guessing.