Any Hidden Agenda Behind the Sales of POS and PROTON?

Lately, there was a slew of divestment by Khazanah Nasional Bhd (Investment arm of Malaysia Government). And, the most recent one was the divestment of Proton stakes to DRB-Hicom. But, the strange part was DRB-Hicom was the winning bidder for Khazanah's stake in POS Malaysia last year too.

Questions have been pouring in to Finance Malaysia regarding this issue, such as, are there any linkages between the two national deals? Other than DRB-Hicom, there was none other better suitors? As such, we would like to give our opinion on this matter. (Just for your reading pleasure)

You have the Questions, We have the Answers

First, both POS and Proton were considered as "sunset" companies in their respective industry. Both were not managed well and fallen from their glamorous days. Just as many investors written them off from investment radar, DRB-Hicom comes into the picture. Frankly speaking, the only asset both companies have was Government's backing.

While POS has the monopoly status in its services, Proton being the national car maker was trying to monopolize too by merging with Perodua. It's been a hot debate on whether Proton and Perodua should merge for better synergies. Anyway, we think that they should remain status quo to creates a healthy competition for consumers benefits.

Idea of the year: Combining POS and Proton via Stamp?

Where is the money comes from?

Another question was on the financial soundness of DRB-Hicom to acquires both companies. We as investors knows that DRB-Hicom does not have much cash in hand (even after excessive borrowing). The 32.21% stake at RM3.60 per share in POS costing RM622.79mil. Then, how about the Proton stake which amounted to over RM1bil? It's like a snake swallowing a cow, then a buffalo within few months!!! Can you imagine?

Any Hidden Agenda?

After all this, Finance Malaysia comes out with a guessing questions on the two deals between DRB-Hicom and Khazanah. Anything to do with the upcoming general election? (Seems like everything was linked to GE nowadays) Does the Government scared of losing the next general election and preparing to divest some of its assets first? Then, to whom they should divest to? Of course, their allies, right? DRB-Hicom?

But, what if they won again and POS and Proton was sold? No worry, because their good ally will always be able to sell it back to them (potentially with good investment gains too). Then, Khazanah can re-list again both POS and Proton proudly. Is this the case?

Well, we're guessing only. And, once again, this is for your reading pleasure only. Don't take it seriously. Happy Guessing.

Why Maybank and CIMB gave up on RHBCap? (23 June 2011)

Merely less than one month of battle (not even pulling off the gun), both Maybank and CIMB today respectively announcing to abort the merger talks with RHBCap. Funny oh? First, the news of aborting was first reported by a Singapore newspaper, not Malaysia, and why not Malaysia? Second, both contenders had set end of June's proposals, announced just only last week. So fast change mind?

Both CIMB and Maybank are turning their heads away from RHB now.

Of course, between the dates, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) made a significant headline when it sells its 25% stake in RHBCap to its sister company, Aabar Investment, for RM10.80 per share, which value RHBCap at 2.25 times RHBCap book value. Does this really affecting the merger talks?

What CIMB says?

In a statement Thursday, June 23, CIMB group chief executive Datuk Seri Nazir Razak said that based on its discussions and assessment of the present expectations of key stakeholders, the bank did not believe that it would be able to arrive at a value creating merger.

“Merger negotiations are both resource consuming and distracting for staff and stakeholders.

"Therefore, we prefer not to prolong our discussions unnecessarily, allowing all parties to return to ‘business as usual’ as soon as possible,” he said. (TheEdge)

What Maybank says?

“In light of recent developments and following further deliberations, the board of directors of Maybank has decided not to pursue the possible merger at this juncture,” Maybank said on Thursday, June 23. (TheEdge)

Who knows? RHB's investors should sell their holdings above RM10 previously.

What Finance Malaysia says?

"The merger talks most probably is still on-going, but behind the board room. ADCB's RM10.80 did set a hindrance for both parties to proceed with the merger talks, in order to convince other shareholders."

"Other than that, EPF's role is crucial for all parties to consider now. Sooner or later, EPF must divest its stake to below 20%. By then only can EPF remove itself from the day-to-day operations of RHB Bank. Remember, EPF's role was supposed to invest, not managing a company."

"Thirdly, Maybank and CIMB may think that the merger talks would takes a long time to consider, and it may affects the day-to-day operations of RHB Bank. Just like EONCap, many of their staffs are turning to other banks while Hong Leong Bank is launching and fighting its merger plans."

KLCI: What the Hell is going on? + Invest Malaysia 2011

Thinking that yesterday's 13points drop is enough? Today, KLCI slumps again for the 2nd day in a row. Are you expecting it? Personally, I don't think most of us can predict the future. But, what I can say is that many investors like me would positioning our money very well, anticipating some good announcements during Invest Malaysia 2011 Conference today and tomorrow. If you're thinking the same way, Good Luck!!!

TheStar picture

Any BAD news?

Excluding foreign news, NO bad news at all in Malaysia. But, investors see the opposite side now - no good news = bad news!

Profit-taking activities set in on Malaysia market beginning this week. If you're not the one who cash out yesterday, you would probably forced to stay on holding until the "tsunami" is over. Money is washing away from the market, flowing overseas (capital outflow by foreign funds). That's why banking stocks, Genting, Petronas Chemicals took a beating today, pulling down KLCI as a result.

Souce: Yahoo! Finance

While many investors are waiting for the goodies during Invest Malaysia 2011 conference, it seems like the party is over without much excitement. First, let's us summarize the announcements made today:

1. 2nd Capital Market Masterplan (CMP2) to swell the value of the capital market to RM5.8 trillion through greater internalization from RM2 trillion now
• New dual licensing scheme to make it easier for dealers in the equity market to become licensed to trade in the derivatives market
• Increasing the number of day traders by almost 3x to enable more dealer representatives to become specialized traders
• New private retirement scheme is introduced
2. Listing of Felda Group's sugar business expected in July 2011
3. In attracting Malaysian professionals to returned, flat 15% income tax rate for 5 years is introduced

What is lacking?

Surprisingly, the Pos Malaysia's stake which is being divested by Khazanah still remained a mystery. Who would be the winner? PM:"The disposal of Pos Malaysia is now in final stage". Maybe due to this news, DRBHicom (the main contender who tipped to win the stake) falls sharply from recent high of RM2.50 to closed RM2.24 today.

Can we turnaround in 2nd-half?

1st-half (today), the impact had undeniably failed. Let's monitor the 2nd-half (tomorrow). As reported by various analysts, tomorrow's session will highlights the Greater Kuala Lumpur related projects. As such, the Mass Rail Transit (MRT) project should take to the stage, and updated on the progress of project. MRCB and Gamuda should be in focus tomorrow. But, would these counters facing the same DRBHicom's fate too?

Who would be the winner of POS Malaysia?

It's been awhile since the government announcing its intention to divest its shareholding in Pos Malaysia last year. Through Khazanah Holdings, the government owned 32% stake in Pos. Let's re-look at the news with updated info, and hopefully we can have a better prediction on Pos in the near term.

While waiting for a new strategic partner, Pos has declared a one-off final and special dividend of 17.5sen, which provides a dividend yield of 5.7%. However, OSK is maintaining its fair value for Pos at RM4.12 with a BUY call. It closed at RM3.32 yesterday.

On 29th March 2011, Business Times reported unconfirmed sources said that Khazanah had just shortlisted 3 out of 5 parties bidding for its 32% stake in Pos.

Who are they?

The 2 candidates that already failed are:

1. Scomi Bhd
2. Tricubes Bhd

The 3 still-in-run candidates are:

1. Nationwide
2. MPC-Amanah REIT
3. DRB-Hicom

The shortlisted parties will make a final presentation today to Khazanah and McKinsey & Co, who is the adviser. Pos' book value per share stands at RM1.54 and it is known that 3 shortlisted candidates are bidding at between 2.2x and 3x. This implies an offer of RM3.38 - RM4.62 per share. It was reported that the ultimate winner will be announced by the Prime Minister during Invest Malaysia 2011 on 12th April (Tuesday).

What is in the offing from the 3 candidates?

Of the names, each has its own niche expertise, with one looking to inject a bank (likely Syed Mokhtar's Bank Muamalat), one with a logistics expertise (Nationwide) and the other a property developer (MPC and Amanah REIT). It was previously rumored that Syed Mokhtar (DRB) is offering RM1bn for Khazanah's divested stake, which works out to be RM5.78 per share. (OSK Research)

What is so exciting about Pos Malaysia?

• Relaxation of Postal Act, which could allow Pos Malaysia to re-develop some of its land parcels to unlock the value of its land-bank.
• Expanding revenue from offering shared banking services with RHB and Maybank.
• Plans to introduce a new direct address mail service soon. Advertisers can channel some of their advertisement spending to direct address mail to target customers.

Recent DRBHCOM share price movement

Finance Malaysia's prediction...

While not able to access the inside information, Finance Malaysia looks at a different angle to predict the ultimate winner, this time via technical analysis. Judging from the past weeks price movements, DRB Hicom is signaling something boiling behind. Today, DRB closed at RM2.16. Would it be the one?

Time dotCom needs more TIME?

After 2 days of suspension and an announcement, Time dotCom (TdC) slides 18% to RM0.63 today. In conjunction with that, TIME - the mother of TdC - also join-in to close down 16% to RM0.435.

Actually, what is so bad about the announcement? Prior to the outcome, both counters jump up in anticipating of good news. Anyway, it looks like investors are jumping blindly before this.

The announcement by TdC:-

• Buy Global Transit Communications (GTC) for RM106 million, the wholesale Internet service and back haul provider
• Buy Global Transit Ltd (GTL) for RM105 million, which owns 10% of trans-Pacific submarine cable
• Buy AIMS Group for RM128 million, owner of network-neutral data centers in the region
• Capital repayment of 2 sens-a-share

To finance the acquisitions, TdC will pay RM90.9mil cash and the rest in new shares. The deal was expected to enhance TdC's earnings straight away, transforming TdC into a regional telco player, and over-taking other competitors.

Why still falls after such a good news?

No one knows the main reason behind. And, Finance Malaysia makes the first comment regarding this, and the main reason was - No More Story. In other words, all the good news have been factor-in before the announcement, and as such, No More Story will be bad news for this company. The last investor who jump in will be the hardest hit.

It was not surprise, because the deals involved so many parties and people, the so called "insider news" would have leaked out much early. Investors keeps on pouring in their hot money to participate, but, the smart one has started to cash out.

By looking at the deal carefully, there was new shares being placed out.

The question is at what price?

And, how to determined the price?

Ah...ha... According to it, the price of new TdC shares that will be issued to the vendors of the companies is 72.3 sen each, based on the 5-days volume-weighted average market price of TdC shares. You get what I mean? If the shares shot up and traded actively before the announcement, the price of new TdC share that will be issued would become higher.

Good Luck on your next target...

Why UEM Land acquires Sunrise?

About the offer…

On 4^th November 2010, UEM Land Bhd plans to take control of Sunrise Bhd in a RM1.4bil deal. Shareholders of Sunrise are given 2 options:

1. UEM Land to acquire Sunrise shares at RM2.80 via the issuance of UEM Land shares at RM2.10 each, or
2. Sunrise shareholders get 2.80 redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) for every one offer share.

 

Why Sunrise?

Reasons given by UEM Land were:

• Leveraging on Sunrise Group's robust financial strengths and prospects
• Accelerate UEM Land's own business expansion
• To secure new development projects
• And, to create another Capital Land (Singapore state-own company which is one of Asia's biggest property developers)

After the deal is completed…

• UEM Group's shareholding in UEM Land will fall to around 60%
• Major shareholder of Sunrise will have stake of around 9% in UEM Land
• Sunrise will be delisted from Bursa Malaysia
• But, the brand name of Sunrise will be retained
• Creating an enlarged group with combined asset base of over RM5bn

Finance Malaysia thinks that the acquisition would compliment UEM Land's lack of expertise in high-rise, high-end property development. What UEM Land's business was in macro township development, such as the Nusajaya project. Mont Kiara, being the award winning development by Sunrise, is a clear example. UEM Land knows that Nusajaya would NOT be perfect without a brand and expertise such as Sunrise's.



Anyway, FM doubts whether the offer will go through smoothly with a mere 11% premium being offered to Sunrise's shareholders. Moreover, Sunrise was planning to launch 4 projects with total gross development value of RM3.2bn soon.

Why MMC want to take over UEM Group?

When the RM15.6 billions take-over news broke out, MMC share price has been rallying to multi-months high. It was reported that MMC is pairing with EPF and PNB with MMC holding a 40% stake of the consortium. On the other hand, Khazanah Nasional Bhd is the ultimate holding company of UEM Group Bhd.

The Pull factors…

1. PLUS Expressways, is one of the key assets that spark MMC interests? The national’s largest cash-generating toll-operator undeniably is Khazanah’s golden asset with 55.2% direct and indirect interest.
2. UEM Land, which has a huge land bank in southern corridor – Iskandar Development Region. This is favorable to Johor based MMC’s investments.
3. To boost its construction arm with stronger muscle? UEM Group is having several projects in Malaysia, such as the Penang Second Bridge. MMC can leverage on the latter expertise and also to gain market share, given the lack of domestic awards.

What makes me interesting is the alternative MRT proposed by IJM-UEM recently. By acquiring UEM, MMC could break-up the joint venture and effectively eliminate the said rival proposal which reportedly costing much lower than the Gamuda-MMC RM35bil proposal. There are two possibilities:

1. Take-over succeeds.
2. Failed. But, MMC guaranteed succeeds in MRT project, because government is running out of time to consider an alternative proposed by IJM-UEM joint venture, which is remain uncertain.

Either way, MMC will gain more than harm. Or, is this the strategy employed by MMC?