RHBRI 4Q12 Market Strategy: Stay Defensive And Buy On Dips To Outperform The Market

Given the persistent headwinds from the external sector and general election overhang on the home front, we are of the view that the market will likely be stuck in a range-bound trading pattern in the 4Q. Consequently, we believe investors would still need to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness in order to outperform the market, while staying defensive on the core holdings will provide greater stability to the portfolio performance.

In addition, as the search for yield will likely remain a key driver for both retail and institutional investors in the 4Q, high divided-yielding stocks will also continue to outperform the market, in our view. A list of our top picks is reflected in table below, which includes “buy on weakness” tactical stocks.

Which Sector to look at?

Sector-wise, our key overweights are telecommunications and banking, although we also have an overweight stance on the consumer, utilities, gaming and rubber gloves under the healthcare sector (see table below). We expect the high-yielding telecommunications stocks to remain relatively defensive for equity investors under the current market environment.

The banking sector, on the other hand, carries a 34.7% weighting in the bellwether index and, in our view, cannot be ignored, given the better-than-expected recovery in earnings momentum over the last two consecutive quarters. The year-to-date annualized loan growth stood at 11.9%, ahead of our and the consensus forecasts of 10-11% and 8-9% and the pipeline of corporate deals remains healthy. This suggests that banking earnings could continue to surpass expectations in the quarters ahead, which coupled with decent valuations and dividend yields vis-a-vis the FBM KLCI benchmark, would bode well for share price performance in the 4Q, in our view.

Source: RHBRI research report

CIMB: Domestic Drivers to steady the ship in 2012

CIMB research remain cautious on Malaysia's growth outlook for 2012 as several factors will put the brakes on growth - slower export growth due to the fragile western economies as well as slower consumption and investment growth due to heightened uncertainty and volatile financial markets. The implementation of ETP and stimulus measures cannot take up all the slack left by weak exports.

Slowing growth, rising risks

We expect GDP growth to slow to 3.8% in 2012 from an estimated 5% in 2011. The factors that shape the prognosis are:

1. continuing weak global growth, pressured by volatile financial markets and Europe's sovereign debt worries;
2. a downturn in Malaysia's export cycle;
3. an expected slowing of consumption and investment due to worries over economic conditions

What to expect in 2012?

While not forecasting a global recession, a combination of fiscal tightening and a potential bigger financial shock from the debt crisis are expected to result in weaker global growth in 2012.

1. Limited growth for the US economy. Its recovery is fragile and could succumb to any big external shocks, especially from Europe. This could lead to a double-dip recession. The sluggish recovery of the labor market as well as housing deflation will dampen household spending.
2. The Eurozone is already in recession in 4Q11 and this will persist in 2012 as the persistent sovereign debt worries, volatility in financial markets and fiscal austerity will weigh significantly on growth. These braking factors will certainly raise the risk of more severe deleveraging, credit contraction and economic drag as the negative feedback loop between the banking system and the real economy becomes entrenched.
3. China and India to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace due to the laggard impact of monetary tightening measures as well as a less favourable external environment. There are still fears of a hard landing for China.

Domestic demand cushions against weaker exports

With the export engine throwing a spanner in the works, the pressure is on domestic demand to keep the economy going, underpinned by both private spending and public investment. The key drivers of consumer spending are stable income and favorable employment prospects. But concerns over weaker growth prospects and volatile stock markets will bite into discretionary spending. Also, global uncertainties will throw a damper over the investment activity.

Macroeconomic policies: What to expect?

For 2012, the government is not straying from its path of fiscal sustainability as it targets to bring down the budget deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2011 to 4.7%. The high level of debt constrains the government's ability to take on additional risk on its balance sheet. If the country does not commit to a credible fiscal reduction plan, it runs the risk of a downgrade of its credit rating in the event of a major change that pushes the fiscal deficit off track.

Monetary policy will continue to support activity

There is still a risk of food inflation. For 2012, inflation was expected to moderate to estimated 2.2% due to:

1. weaker economic growth;
2. easing commodity prices;
3. a high base due to the fuel and sugar price hikes in 1H11

Persistent growth concerns, both global and domestic, coupled with expectations of easing inflationary pressures will enable the central bank to maintain an accomodative monetary policy. The tone of its policy statement on 11 Nov 11 suggests that growth is more of a worry than inflation, signalling the central bank's readiness to reverse its monetary course if domestic conditions deteriorate. An early rate cut in 1Q12 is still a possibility and end-2012 OPR to be targeted at 2.50-2.75% (3% at end-2011).

Source: CIMB Research

Foreign Funds Dumping Msia Equities? (Sept 2011)

Local market, view as one of the most defensive market in the world, suffering the same fate as regional market this round. The correction which started early of August had actually hit our shores too. Who say we are in a better position when market downturn? No one raised their hands now. Ha..aaa.

Historically, our local market is very "Dull" if foreigners do not participate here. KLCI shoot up because there is an in-flow of foreign funds into Bursa Malaysia. During that time, we are very joyful and assumed that they're in for long-term (until recently). Don't be "syok-sendiri laa" bro. Investors are here because they want to make profit. After achieving their goals, what would they do? Of course, taking profit (and bring down KLCI) and left our country.

Then, when is the best time to leave?

Now or never. In other words, KLCI went up and go down mainly because of foreign funds. Retail investors definitely do not have the power to muscle the markets. Agree?

Foreign ownership in Malaysia fell to 21.6% in August 2011, as foreigners sold RM3.8bn during that month. Stocks with high foreign shareholding could be vulnerable to a further sell-down in the current negative environment. The said stocks refer to AirAsia, Genting, IJM Corp, CIMB, GenM, Gamuda, in which already seen heavy selling pressure lately.

Source: Excerpt from Credit Suisse report dated 26 Sept 2011

Answering the topic question, YES, foreign funds did sell down on Malaysian equities recently. However, those stocks that were battered down may in for a sharp rebound once foreign funds coming back again. Why? Simply because they selected the said companies for some good reasons, and these reasons would ensure them to re-look again if the pessimism of the market is gone.

Why Maybank and CIMB gave up on RHBCap? (23 June 2011)

Merely less than one month of battle (not even pulling off the gun), both Maybank and CIMB today respectively announcing to abort the merger talks with RHBCap. Funny oh? First, the news of aborting was first reported by a Singapore newspaper, not Malaysia, and why not Malaysia? Second, both contenders had set end of June's proposals, announced just only last week. So fast change mind?

Both CIMB and Maybank are turning their heads away from RHB now.

Of course, between the dates, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) made a significant headline when it sells its 25% stake in RHBCap to its sister company, Aabar Investment, for RM10.80 per share, which value RHBCap at 2.25 times RHBCap book value. Does this really affecting the merger talks?

What CIMB says?

In a statement Thursday, June 23, CIMB group chief executive Datuk Seri Nazir Razak said that based on its discussions and assessment of the present expectations of key stakeholders, the bank did not believe that it would be able to arrive at a value creating merger.

“Merger negotiations are both resource consuming and distracting for staff and stakeholders.

"Therefore, we prefer not to prolong our discussions unnecessarily, allowing all parties to return to ‘business as usual’ as soon as possible,” he said. (TheEdge)

What Maybank says?

“In light of recent developments and following further deliberations, the board of directors of Maybank has decided not to pursue the possible merger at this juncture,” Maybank said on Thursday, June 23. (TheEdge)

Who knows? RHB's investors should sell their holdings above RM10 previously.

What Finance Malaysia says?

"The merger talks most probably is still on-going, but behind the board room. ADCB's RM10.80 did set a hindrance for both parties to proceed with the merger talks, in order to convince other shareholders."

"Other than that, EPF's role is crucial for all parties to consider now. Sooner or later, EPF must divest its stake to below 20%. By then only can EPF remove itself from the day-to-day operations of RHB Bank. Remember, EPF's role was supposed to invest, not managing a company."

"Thirdly, Maybank and CIMB may think that the merger talks would takes a long time to consider, and it may affects the day-to-day operations of RHB Bank. Just like EONCap, many of their staffs are turning to other banks while Hong Leong Bank is launching and fighting its merger plans."

OSK Stock Picks for May 2011

The KLCI lagged the region in April as it suffered from the fallout ahead of the Sarawak state elections. With that behind us, OSK see the market recovering in May as they believe the 1Q2011 will at least meet downbeat expectations after the past 4 quarters of disappointments. With the potential for reasonable results, we believe the market will shift back to fundamentals and look back at Big Caps.

KLCI was a laggard

With the KLCI recording a total return of -0.25% in April, Malaysia's standing YTD slipped significantly to being the 4th worst performing market from being the 4th best. As mentioned earlier, the key drag on the Malaysian market was the Sarawak state elections. While the market had put in some gains ahead of the Invest Malaysia conference on 12 and 13 March, by these dates concerns that the incumbent Barisan Nasional would fare below expectations in the state elections led to significant profit taking in the Malaysian market. Towards month end, with the BN retaining its two thirds majority in Sarawak, there was a modest recovery given continued strength in global markets.

OSK: Total Returns year-to-date

For April, no sector strongly outperformed or underperformed with the biggest gainers being the Gaming and Consumer sectors driven by Genting and F&N, while the biggest losers were the sectors hardest hit by the Japanese calamities namely Autos and Technology with drops seen in UMW Holdings and JCY International.

OSK: FBM100 gainers and losers in April 2011

Strategy - BUY Big Caps, Trade property

After October 2010 which saw a jump in investors sentiment on property counters spurred by the 3 M&A proposals of UEM Land-Sunrise, IJM Land-MRCB and Sunway-Suncity, news flow on property counters has generally tapered down. We believe this is set to change soon with the likelihood of more announcements on Government land developments around the Klang Valley such as Sungai Buloh land, the Sungai Besi airport and others as well as annoucements relating to developments in Iskandar Malaysia. As such, we would advise investors consider trading in property counters with good Government ties such as SP Setia, UEM Land and Glomac.

OSK: Top Picks for May 2011

Inline with the view that Big Caps could do better in May with the focus back on earnings, we shift our Top Buy calls for May all on Big Caps. We pick our Top 2 banking buys CIMB and Maybank coupled with our Top Telco Buy Axiata. We include our Top Transport buy call AirAsia which just completed an analyst corporate visit in Bangkok and Jakarta in preparation for the upcoming listing of its Thai and Indonesia associates. And round it all off with UEM Land which is an excellent proxy to the upcoming potential news flow in the property sector and also as recognition to its likely inclusion into the FBM KLCI in June. Do note that aside from AirAsia, all the other 4 stocks have been laggards or market performers over the past 3 months.

Source: OSK Research report

OSK Stock Picks for March 2011

By OSK Research,

Despite relatively strong results from a number of Blue Chips in February, the market still retreated and ended up in the red so far in 2011. Selling was largely attributed to concerns arising from political unrest in the Middle East although we continue to see limited risk if this does not spread to Saudi Arabia.

Go out and BUY?

Trading Strategy - Buy on Weakness

OSK continue to advise investors to Buy on Weakness in the current volatile market with focus on Banks, especially those that have been sold down recently as we still see robust loans growth of 8.5%. OSK also advise trading in Oil & Gas, Construction and Property counters as the news flow should remain good although they caution that profits will likely to kick in only in 2H of 2011.

March 2011 Top Buys

OSK's top buys did poorly for February, with only 2 stocks matching or exceeding the KLCI namely KPJ and Kencana. For March, as we remain hopeful of a market rebound, we are keeping CIMB, Kencana and SP Setia as our top buys. At the same time, we have added in defensive plays such as Petronas Gas and also retain KPJ.

Source: OSK Research

By Finance Malaysia,

While we are hopeful that the unrest in Middle East will eased soon, without spreading to Saudi Arabia, I think investor should trades cautiously as long as KLCI did not break free from the 1,500 psychological level. In terms of sector, I prefer Oil & Gas and Construction sector mainly because of Malaysia government's "preferred play". I view these sector as more defensive to global uncertainties, as Petronas and government is the main projects sources for O&G and construction sector respectively.

Related Posts:

Why Malaysia Market keeps going UP?

2010 Top 10 Malaysian Companies

Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently announced the result of Asia 200 survey, which ranked the top 10 companies of selected countries according to financial reputation, corporate reputation, quality, vision, and innovation. Want to know the winners of Malaysia?

Wall Street Journal: "For the second year in a row, Public Bank Bhd ranked 1st overall among Malaysian companies. The bank's profit rose 20% to RM 2.2 billion on a 12% rise in revenue during the first nine months of the year.

Customer deposits grew at an annualized rate of 12.2%. Public Bank, Malaysia's 3rd largest lender by assets behind Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd (CIMB), also ramped up its Tier 1 capital ratio while touting a dramatically lower impaired-loans ratio at 1.2%, versus 3.4% for the industry overall."

Source: Wall Street Journal

Meanwhile, CIMB Group this year makes a new showing on the Asia 200 list, with a #7 spot. The group helm under Dato' Sri Nazir Razak, spearhead CIMB as a regional universal bank, setting its foot in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, UK, USA, Brunei, Myanmar, Vietnam, Bahrain and Cambodia.

Surprisingly, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) was being ranked as #9 on the list, while AirAsia - the stiff rival - are not included. Anyway, MAS did turnaround recently after suffering from huge losses few years back. A police report against Tan Sri Tajuddin Ramli (former executive chairman) was lodged by MAS in 2002 for allegedly causing the national carrier to suffer losses in excess of RM 8 billion.

Ananda Krishnan's Maxis and Astro earned their place at 4th and 10th respectively. After re-listing of Maxis 2009, the billionaire took Astro, Measat and Tanjong private this year.

Source: Wall Street Journal

Donations through CIMB Cares

In conjunction with Wesak Day, this is a very meaningful topic. 

Previously, I am facing difficulties in performing such an angel act – Donations.

I am sure everyone of you faced situations when someone approaching you to make donations to…

And, maybe you think:

“Is this fellow trying to con me?”

“Will he channel the funds for the real purpose?”

“Why not I donate directly to the designated organizations?”

Frankly, I’m thinking of the 3^rd questions most of the time. (Sorry to those approaches)

However, where am I going to donate directly?

Is it very troublesome to go there?

Are there any alternative ways?

From now on, you can make donations to your favorites charity organizations, through CIMB Cares. Etc. WWF, MAKNA, Mercy Malaysia… It’s convenient, secure and 100% of your donation goes to your chosen charitable organization.

There are 4 categories of charitable organizations, namely Environment, Education, Welfare, and Healthcare. The online fund raising portal makes donating a breeze. You can make donations of any amount to any of the participating NGOs. Payments can be made as a one time donation or you can set up a standing instruction for it.

Log on www.cimbclicks.com.my/cimbcares.htm and experience the pleasure of donating today.