OSK Stock Picks for July 2011

While fears of an European sovereign debt default reverberating worldwide, Malaysia quietly outperformed most of the world in June as the Banking sector led the KLCI higher after the potential M&A of RHB Cap was called off . We had expected the KLCI to trend higher led by banks but our hope was founded on potential excitement driven by the merger rather than on sighs of relief that there would be no overpaying for RHB Cap.

OSK Research: Top Gainers and Losers of FBM 100 during the month of June 2011.

July looks to be a Strategist’s fantasy?

With numerous announcements related to economic reform and infrastructure developments lined up for July, namely:

• 1 July – The launch of the ETP River of Life project involving the rehabilitation of the Klang River;
• 5 July – The 7th ETP update during which the PM will also unveil PEMANDU’s efforts to classify some 37 policy change recommendations made in the NEM into 6 Strategic Reform Initiative (SRI) clusters that will signal real economic reform and serve as enablers to the ETP projects;
• 8 July – The ground breaking ceremony of the ETP KL MRT project.

Coupled with what appears to be increasing foreign interest in the Malaysian market, July looks to be every optimistic strategist’s dream as the market may well scale higher from its already record levels. Only the risk of unrest related to the planned rallies (now banned) on 9 July appears to be casting a cloud over the July outlook. Even the global outlook has improved with problems in Greece appearing resolved until another day.

OSK Research: Foreign shareholding level still depressed as of March 2011

ETP has been well marketed...

The heightening foreign interest in Malaysia appears to have stemmed in part from the marketing efforts of PEMANDU in promoting the ETP. As economic reform moves into the next gear with the mapping out of details on how the New Economic Model’s policy reform can serve as enablers of the ETP, we believe that the buoyant foreign sentiment can be sustained. Thus we continue to advocate buying of sectors which will benefit from the ETP, namely Banking, O&G, Construction and Property.

Top Buys reflect our 2H2011 outlook

For July, we stay with our favourite sectors in naming our Top Buys, with Banks (Maybank), Construction (Gamuda), Property (UEM Land) and O&G (Dialog) all fielding a representative each. We also present a Top Buy from the Steel sector (Perwaja) in line with our recently upgraded view on the sector on account of potential M&As and handing out of Iron Ore mining concessions.

OSK Research Top Picks for July 2011

Source: OSK Research

OSK Stock Picks for June 2011

The KLCI performed as expected as a reasonable stream of results provided a stable floor while strong news flow drove up Bigger Caps. For June, while the 4 upcoming IPOs and the KLCI review may draw some attention, OSK believe all eyes will be on the potential tussle between CIMB and Maybank over the control of RHB Cap.

OSK Research

Outlook: Possibly not as quiet as expected

With a total of 4 IPOs going for listing in June and July, it was expected that the market to be somewhat quiet as investors stored away funds to subscribe to the IPOs or buy into them when traded. Despite concerns that the amount of funds raised by the 4 IPOs, namely UOA Development, MSM Malaysia, Axis International REIT and Bumi Armada, would suck the liquidity out of the market, but the amount of funds (RM7.7bn) is far less than that raised in 2010 with the listing of MMHE and Petronas Chemicals (RM14bn). Thus, there should not be much of an issue on the liquidity of the market post the 4 IPOs.

Funds to be raised by IPOs in 2011 (Source: Company Data, OSK)

Together with the KLCI review

Another market's attention factor is the upcoming KLCI review, which are to be announced on 6 or 7 June and become effective in the 3rd week of June. In this review, OSK see MMHE and UEMLand possibly replacing PLUS and MAS, which will be privatized and has fallen below the Top 40 stocks by market cap respectively.

OSK Research, Bloomberg

Banks and Situational

Given what may still be a lackluster broader market in June, we are focusing on a number of situational stocks that should see better news flow during the month.

1. First, we have UEMLand who will likely joining KLCI before end June.
2. We also have KimLun Corporation which may see a pick up news flow on Iskandar Malaysia during the month.
3. Next, we have Khazanah's Pos Malaysia stake sale completed in the 3rd week of June coupled with details of what DRB-Hicom plans to do with the company.
4. Finally, we have 2 smaller banks, namely RHB Cap and Alliance Financial Group that should see sentiment on improved M&A rumors.

Source: OSK Research

OSK Stock Picks for May 2011

The KLCI lagged the region in April as it suffered from the fallout ahead of the Sarawak state elections. With that behind us, OSK see the market recovering in May as they believe the 1Q2011 will at least meet downbeat expectations after the past 4 quarters of disappointments. With the potential for reasonable results, we believe the market will shift back to fundamentals and look back at Big Caps.

KLCI was a laggard

With the KLCI recording a total return of -0.25% in April, Malaysia's standing YTD slipped significantly to being the 4th worst performing market from being the 4th best. As mentioned earlier, the key drag on the Malaysian market was the Sarawak state elections. While the market had put in some gains ahead of the Invest Malaysia conference on 12 and 13 March, by these dates concerns that the incumbent Barisan Nasional would fare below expectations in the state elections led to significant profit taking in the Malaysian market. Towards month end, with the BN retaining its two thirds majority in Sarawak, there was a modest recovery given continued strength in global markets.

OSK: Total Returns year-to-date

For April, no sector strongly outperformed or underperformed with the biggest gainers being the Gaming and Consumer sectors driven by Genting and F&N, while the biggest losers were the sectors hardest hit by the Japanese calamities namely Autos and Technology with drops seen in UMW Holdings and JCY International.

OSK: FBM100 gainers and losers in April 2011

Strategy - BUY Big Caps, Trade property

After October 2010 which saw a jump in investors sentiment on property counters spurred by the 3 M&A proposals of UEM Land-Sunrise, IJM Land-MRCB and Sunway-Suncity, news flow on property counters has generally tapered down. We believe this is set to change soon with the likelihood of more announcements on Government land developments around the Klang Valley such as Sungai Buloh land, the Sungai Besi airport and others as well as annoucements relating to developments in Iskandar Malaysia. As such, we would advise investors consider trading in property counters with good Government ties such as SP Setia, UEM Land and Glomac.

OSK: Top Picks for May 2011

Inline with the view that Big Caps could do better in May with the focus back on earnings, we shift our Top Buy calls for May all on Big Caps. We pick our Top 2 banking buys CIMB and Maybank coupled with our Top Telco Buy Axiata. We include our Top Transport buy call AirAsia which just completed an analyst corporate visit in Bangkok and Jakarta in preparation for the upcoming listing of its Thai and Indonesia associates. And round it all off with UEM Land which is an excellent proxy to the upcoming potential news flow in the property sector and also as recognition to its likely inclusion into the FBM KLCI in June. Do note that aside from AirAsia, all the other 4 stocks have been laggards or market performers over the past 3 months.

Source: OSK Research report

Why UEM Land acquires Sunrise?

About the offer…

On 4^th November 2010, UEM Land Bhd plans to take control of Sunrise Bhd in a RM1.4bil deal. Shareholders of Sunrise are given 2 options:

1. UEM Land to acquire Sunrise shares at RM2.80 via the issuance of UEM Land shares at RM2.10 each, or
2. Sunrise shareholders get 2.80 redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) for every one offer share.

 

Why Sunrise?

Reasons given by UEM Land were:

• Leveraging on Sunrise Group's robust financial strengths and prospects
• Accelerate UEM Land's own business expansion
• To secure new development projects
• And, to create another Capital Land (Singapore state-own company which is one of Asia's biggest property developers)

After the deal is completed…

• UEM Group's shareholding in UEM Land will fall to around 60%
• Major shareholder of Sunrise will have stake of around 9% in UEM Land
• Sunrise will be delisted from Bursa Malaysia
• But, the brand name of Sunrise will be retained
• Creating an enlarged group with combined asset base of over RM5bn

Finance Malaysia thinks that the acquisition would compliment UEM Land's lack of expertise in high-rise, high-end property development. What UEM Land's business was in macro township development, such as the Nusajaya project. Mont Kiara, being the award winning development by Sunrise, is a clear example. UEM Land knows that Nusajaya would NOT be perfect without a brand and expertise such as Sunrise's.



Anyway, FM doubts whether the offer will go through smoothly with a mere 11% premium being offered to Sunrise's shareholders. Moreover, Sunrise was planning to launch 4 projects with total gross development value of RM3.2bn soon.