What's wrong with Malaysia in terms of GDP per Capita? (2012)

Addressing the issue, which Finance Malaysia thinks was critical at a time of globalization heats up, Malaysia needs to formulate and take action immediately without much hesitation. But, before we jump into action, we need to know the root of the problem. Right?

Exactly, we must find out the reason why we left behind other countries in terms of GDP per capita, which refers to the country's gross domestic products at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita. According to Wikipedia, it was the value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given year divided by the average population for the same year.

Why not using nominal GDP to measure national wealth?

Comparison of national wealth are also frequently made on the basis of nominal GDP, which does not reflect differences in the cost of living. Using a PPP basis is arguably more useful when comparing generalized differences in living standards on the whole between nations because PPP takes into account the relative cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries, rather than using just exchange rates which may distort the real differences in income.

Singapore is now the richest country in the world.
Where is Malaysia?

According to sources, some of the factors contributing to Singapore's forecast performance are its 'human capital' -- a skilled and educated labour force, the dynamic business environment, openness to trade, capital mobility and foreign direct investment. Also, it is worth noting that there is a global eastwards shift in economic activity -- Singapore is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this.

However, everything is not going well for Malaysia, although we are Singapore's closest neighbour. In terms of GDP, we moving nowhere for past few years amid competitive global environment. But, in terms of population, we believe we accelerated for past one year after government legalized some 1.6million foreign unskilled labourers. Please noted that they are non-taxpayers who consume all the benefits funded by us Tax payers.

On the other side, our brightest and brilliant are forced to mass migrate to other countries. This is a fact which is dampening the future of our country. It's sad because Malaysia supposedly was high on the list in terms of GDP per capita, given the plenty of natural resources that we had and strategic position we located in. Why?

The main reason lies within us, Malaysians. Don't blame the government. Don't blame other countries. Don't blame the statistic. Just blame ourself, Malaysians. A government was formed by its own people, and elected by us. All the while, we have this wrong mentality that we are blessed with valuable resources which can last us for a long long time. Does that mean that we do not need to compete?

Facebooking is a new norm in workplace now.

If you were to ask, Finance Malaysia would take the blame on our mindset, especially youngsters nowadays. Most of them didn't bother about the country and their future. These people go to work for the sake of working only. They follow instructions, without reinventing the way we work. How are we going to excel? Don't even think about competing. It's about time to change for a better tomorrow.

Impact of minimum wage policy from an economics perspective

Continue from previous post on "New Minimum Wage Policy", here we analyze the impact from an economics perspective. Many people said the new policy will jack-up the inflation figures due to higher production costs. Subsequently, it will dampen the GDP growth numbers. Is it true?

The impact on inflation and GDP growth is ambiguous. Setting a minimum wage would boost wages and consumption for workers who remain employed (likely to be the more productive workers, working in companies that have higher profit margin), but would hurt the profitability of businesses that are labor intensive and could potentially lead to higher unemployment rate.

The impact on growth will likely be a net negative in the short-run as it might result in raised cost without an increase in productivity. In the long-run, this policy may bring about a positive impact if it succeeds in encouraging workers to upgrade their skills or for companies to invest more capital to boost productivity.

From an economic standpoint, the minimum wage policy is not the best way to help the lower income households. A gradual phase-in of the minimum wage should help reduce some of the negative impact.

Unless the introduction of the minimum wage policy leads to a widespread upward adjustment in wages, there shouldn't be a significant impact on inflation.

Some SMEs claim that a minimum wage would bankrupt small firms which rely on cheap labor, from Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh. The Malaysian Federation of Employers, whose members collectively hire 2 million workers, said it wants an exemption for the smallest employers and for the policy to be implemented over several years. Ex-PM Mahathir Mohd, who is very influential in the political scene, is also against the minimum wage policy as he believes that it would hurt Malaysia’s competitiveness, especially during economic challenging times.

Source: Credit Suissue report dated 19th March 2012

Minimum Wage Policy: Pain for SMEs?

Malaysia Prime Minister promised that there will be an important announcement on 1 May 2012 (Labor Day). Without much thought, it's very obvious that it was closely related to "Minimum Wage Policy" which already echoed by Government to win the heart of public. However, it receives much objections from private sectors, especially small-and-medium enterprises (SME) claiming that the new policy would impact on their balance sheets drastically. Really?

Impact of a minimum wage policy

As pressure mounts on the government to ensure that private sector workers in Malaysia earn salaries above the poverty level of RM760, Malaysia could set the minimum wage at RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for East Malaysia. According to World Bank, Malaysia's wages have risen by a CAGR of 2.6% over the past 10 years, while inflation has risen at a higher pace of 3.0-3.5%.

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Who is the BIG winner?

The new policy would benefit some 3.2million workers or about 1/4 of Malaysia's workforce. It was believe that foreign workers would also enjoy a minimum wage salary. Obviously, foreign workers could be the biggest beneficiaries, as they are the most likely group of workers who are currently paid below the proposed minimum wage levels.

Which Sectors could be the Worst hit?

According to MIER, the sectors which have the highest percentage of workers in the lower income bracket are listed below. This is no surprise as these industries have the highest proportion of foreign labor.

• Manufacturing (e.g. glove, food, wood-related and electronics)
• Retail (e.g. department stores and supermarkets)
• Hotel, F&B (e.g. restaurants, hawker centers and small eateries)
• Security and Landscape
• Agriculture including plantations, aquaculture and fishing industries

However, it was understand that the MNCs such as Nestle, AEON, Guinness and Carlsberg are already paying their general workers above the minimum wage levels. Meanwhile, local SMEs or manufacturing entities which rely heavily on foreign workers would be worst hit, such as Top Glove, Supermax and The Store, especially if they do not have pricing power to pass on the increased wage cost to their buyers. But, the graph below shows that Top Glove and Supermax may not be badly hit as mentioned above, due to its low weightage of cost on labor.

How about Palm Oil sector?

Luckily, the palm oil industry which rely heavily on foreign workers (1/3 of field workers), had already adjusted the salaries of their workers in 2011. So, it may not be as badly hit as the other sectors.

Next post, we look at the impact of the policy from an economies perspective. Stay tune.
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Source: Credit Suisse, TA Research, Bloomberg, MIER