New Fund: OSK-UOB Capital Protected Essentials Fund

As the world population continues its growth led by the emerging countries coupled with the higher purchasing power, the demand for the essentials or basic commodities (i.e. those that we use daily such as cotton for clothing, corn and sugar for food, crude oil for energy) have significantly increased. Further, with the imbalance of increase in demand and slower growth in supply, this has also resulted in a situation where consumers now and going forward have to pay more for fuel, clothing and food.

With the expectation of further increase in the prices of these essentials or basic commodities, OSK-UOB has established a fund that will capitalize on the price movements of these essentials or basic commodities, which is OSK-UOB Capital Protected* Essentials Fund.

Fund Asset Allocation:

Indicative Asset Allocation

Over The Counter (OTC) Option:

A 4-year option whose underlying reference is a basket of 4 commodities, i.e. Brent Crude Oil, Cotton, Sugar and Corn, and each commodity is represented by a listed futures contract.

Why it also called "Memory Option" ?

This is because the option is structured to provide 4 annual coupon payments during the tenure of the fund, if at the relevant observation date, all of the 4 underlying reference commodities prices are greater than or equal to their initial reference prices determined at the commencement date of the fund. It has a "memory" component i.e. the annual coupon payable can be carried forward if it failed to met the conditions for a particular year.

103% Capital Protection?

Yes. The capital protection covers the investors' capital investment and includes the 3% sales charge payable by investors.

Hence, the fund is suitable for investors who:

1. have a low risk tolerance;
2. seeks capital protection*;
3. seek potential returns from commodities essential to our daily lives;
4. have a medium term horizon; and
5. seek income

Download the fund prospectus here

Source: OSK-UOB Investment Management

* Investors are advised that the fund is not a guaranteed fund. Capital protection is provided through investments in ZNIDs and not by a guarantee. Consequently, the return of capital is SUBJECT TO the credit/default risk of the issuers of the ZNIDs and may result in losses.

Update: Gold Price Outlook (May 2013)

Would you cut loss? Would you cost averaging? Or, would you accumulate at current level? These are a few questions from Gold investors since March 2013. What a difficult questions to answer... Here is our view on gold prices currently:

Our answer is to cost averaging or accumulate now, and hold it at least until September 2013. Why? Let's read on...

Lately, there is some good signs which favors gold prices in the short term:

1. Federal Reserve chairman signaled records stimulus will continue until economy improves.
2. Physical gold demand has surged after mid-April drops, especially from Asian consumers and central banks.
3. US debt ceiling issue will be discussed again in September 2013, in which congressman will most likely to increase again, thus, printing more money.

If you're a technical guy, then let's look at the chart above.

A 'Double Bottom' pattern was formed and gold prices may rebound very soon. It will be a gain of almost 8% if it surges towards 1,500 level. That may not sound sexy, but, what if this occurs in June alone? One month 8% gain enough for you? Anyway, if we look at the chances of gold prices going up versus going down, which side got more potential?

Finance Malaysia blog is only giving all of you readers to have a good discussions here. Any comment?

Why GOLD is a different asset class?

Today, gold is becoming an ever important asset class in the world. Banks nationwide is offering investors the opportunity to invest in gold, whether it is for capital preservation or capital gain. How well you diversify without investing in gold? This is the question being asked by those already investing in gold, and most of them already making profit out of it. But, is it really so different? Is it really a must have asset class?

History of Gold

Gold has been used for numerous monetary functions long long time ago, especially in China. Ancient people used gold as a form of currency and storage of wealth. By using gold as a medium to which paper currency was pegged, most modern international monetary systems were created since then.

What drives up Gold price?

The modern gold rush scenario happened since 2008 global financial crisis, driven by extremely low deposits rate on cash, very volatile equity markets and surging inflation. Negative real value of money is the key factor why many people rushing to gold since then. And of course, the wealth generated by India and China sparked the demand for gold too. Both Indians and Chinese are buying gold as a status they long-been dreaming of.

More people are flocking to Gold

Because of the bad loss-making experience in equity investments during 2008 financial crisis, investors exited the capital markets and were holding record amounts of cash then. However, the low yields on cash and other safer instruments left investors searching for better yield elsewhere. Low volatility, safe asset class, and storage of wealth naturally makes gold investment popular. This is when "Gold rush" sets in, with or without your attention. Yes, we're in the midst of gold rush currently and could persist for few years more.

Emerging Markets is the main drivers

In 2010, 54% of total global demand for gold were for the purposes of making jewelry. Who are these rich people? Yup, Asians were the regular jewelry supporters. Indian demand alone was responsible for around 1/3 of total global demand. This trend is expected to continue as more Indians make their way into the middle class and have the ability to spend their income on gold jewelry.

Following closely was Chinese, whom is beginning to display a trend that could see it overtake the ultimate title in the near future. Traditionally, Chinese cannot runaway from buying gold during Chinese New Year, marriages, new born or even birthdays. This reasons ensure the sustainability of Chinese demand for gold. In total, 40% of global jewelry demand is contributed by Indians and Chinese.

China is the largest gold producing country?

Despite record high gold prices, total mine production was fairly unchanged and remain below levels seen earlier in the decade. This was due to rising production costs and tighter legislation in certain gold producing countries. The latest was in Peru, where protesters were staging a rally for past few days against environment damaged resulted from gold mining activities there.

South Africa, once the largest gold producing country, was overtaken by China since 2007. Hence, China is going to dominate both demand and supply of gold and is expected to continue its pattern of growth going forward.

US and Western Central Banks are largest gold holders?

To re-balance currency reserves, liquidation of gold by central banks globally was a routine procedure. Despite the fact that most western central banks are, for all effects and purposes, over-allocated to gold, annual sales trends began to gradually slow as the effects of financial crisis is not over yet. Obviously, European Central Banks (ECB), have been very hesitant to sell gold from their external reserves back into the marketplace because they view gold as a currency proxy and a way to diversify their holdings. European, from banks to people, prefer to hold gold rather than currency at risk of continue devaluation.

Meanwhile, Emerging countries with particularly small gold holdings as a percentage of reserves currently are diversifying from US dollars. Instead, emerging economies are regular buyers of gold now. As these economies continue its speed to grow bigger, a paradigm shift appears to be unavoidable.

The above factors explained why gold is a different asset class. We cannot simply read the historical trends and using technical analysis tools to predict the gold price directions. Yet, we invest into gold to protect and create wealth, amid the looming economy crisis.

Oil & Gas: Why Malaysia is different? (21 Aug 2011)

With oil prices hovering around USD80-85 per barrel currently, what is the outlook for Malaysia oil & gas (O&G) industry? Dubbed as "Black Gold", crude oil is one of investors favorite asset classes, which is highly volatile. Here, we examined the implications of lower oil prices, current scenario of the industry, and sustainability of oil price going forward. Feel free to share this out via our Facebook page (www.facebook.com/financemalaysia).

What drags down oil prices?

As most of you already know, US and Europe is main culprit for the sliding oil prices. High debt issues still lingering the global economy since 2008 global financial crisis. As such, the potential slowdown in the global economy as per investors perception, droves oil prices lower to current level.

What is the implications?

Actually, the correction of oil prices is driven by sentiment of traders, whom thinking that the demand is going ton be weak soon. What would you do if you're a CEO of Shell? Cutting back on oil exploration spending, re-evaluating the feasibility of planned projects, or even delaying some of them. At worst, you already seen it during 2008 financial crisis, where KNM battling for survival when a few of its clients delaying projects.

Oil prices outlook?

We believe the price of crude oil will trend lower in tandem with easing demand as industrial activities slow down. OSK had revising downwards their oil price forecasts for FY11 and FY12 to USD85-95/barrel and USD80-90/barrel respectively. Immediate resistance at USD90/barrel, while support at USD70/barrel.

Why Malaysia is different?

Unlike other countries, local O&G players are more dependent on our big boss - Petronas. Why? Because, Petronas is the one who is feeding the local players by dishing out marginal oil fields contracts and higher capex committed for next 10 years. No matter how global oil prices trend, Petronas is the growth engine of local players.

Target Price by OSK Research dated 19 Aug 2011

Buy or Sell?

Based on our reasons given above, we should Buy those companies which have strong relationship with Petronas (higher chances of getting contracts) and Sell those companies with excessive foreign contracts. This assumption is correct if oil prices are trending lower. As such, I picks Kencana (strong relationship and earnings) and Dialog (sound business with recurring income).

US rating cut: Should we buy now? (9 Aug 2011)

To answer that million dollar question, please let us examine the whole situation. First, what actually caused the market to slump? Second, the correction is short or long-term? In the end, it depends on how gut are you as an investor in this sentiment driven market.

What actually caused the market to slump?

Panic selling is my answer. Simple and straight to the point. Investors are so scared that they can't figure out what is going to happen after S&P downgraded US long-time AAA rating. This was the first time US was being downgraded. No previous record for investors to forecasts, so dump first la. Herd mentality is playing a very crucial role now (again).

Short or Long-term correction?

As mentioned, panic selling also means short-term correction. People are throwing their assets at a discounted price for the sake of getting their sleepless night away. After awhile, then only they realized that the actual situation is not as bad as they think. Then, investors will come back to the "playground".

The panicky Good news?

While bear market set the stage last week, US did reported a few surprising announcements as below:

1. unemployment rate fell slightly in July to 9.1% as compare to 9.2% in previous month


2. payroll salary is increasing again in July (boosting consumer spending going forward)


3. 2nd quarter corporate earnings are better than many analysts forecast


4. After all, only S&P cut US rating while Moody's and Fitch still maintain the AAA rating


5. Commodities price came down so much which would put less pressure on inflation

Despite the good news, seems like the market was conquered by negative vibes successfully distributed by S&P. Finance Malaysia believes the market will sooner or later realized that the world economy is actually still recovering, albeit slowly. Investors will come back again in medium term owing to a few catalysts to rejuvenate investors' sentiment. Who knows QE3 is in the making?

Should we invest in Commodities or Resources? (July 2011)‏

Unlike real estate, assets type such as commodities and resources investments tend to be highly volatile. This kind of assets classes is suitable for high risk takers. Knowing the characteristic of the assets classes is important to suit your investment objectives so that a correct investment decision was made. However, I noticed that many investors confused about Commodities and Resources, and they often lumped them as SAME. Is it true? Let's look at it separately (not together).

Commodities vs Resources?
Yes. Both is similar, yet there are some differences between them. First, let's talk about commodities. Commodities for me were comprised of metals such as copper, iron ore, silver, gold, platinum... Although many of us includes energy assets such as oil and gas into it, we can categorize it as an asset class which we can't consume with our mouth. Sometime, it was called hard commodities.

Meanwhile, Resources are soft commodities. They comprises agriculture products and food, etc sugar, corn, wheat, soybean, palm oil... These are closely linked with our food and beverages. After understanding the basic of these two assets, let's us examine the next question.

Should we invest in Commodities or Resources now?

In view of the current scenario, I prefer Resources rather than Commodities. Why? Demand for wheat, rice and other resources tends to be more sustainable. Even if the global economy is going to slow down, we still have to eat or consume as it was a necessity.

Other than that, bad weather (due to global warming?) and natural disaster (due to end-of-the world?) had disrupted the supply of resources. Although commodities such as coal mining in Australia was affected too, food do more harm to human being. Without adequate resources, people may trade commodities for resources!!! Don't you?

What if the current high price of commodities was driven up by speculation? Even though demand and supply play their role here, but speculation and traders tend to make profit from the game. By manipulating the demand-supply story, they're in to drive up the prices, making it more pricier rather than purely based on the fundamental.

After all these points highlighted, would you invest in Commodities or Resources?

Government to increase electricity tariff? And, RON95 price? (24 May 2011)

Before Government making the decision on two of the most important necessity of Rakyat, let us make a guess first. I know this would be a hot debate on whether Government should increase the electricity tariff and RON95 petrol price. Actually, both are linked closely with crude oil - the black GOLD.

Electricity Tariff

For TNB, the revise is crucial for its sustainably of the company to continue electrified Malaysia's economy. In fact, this is a long overdue issue, delay and postpone until now. But, why now? I believes that Government, initially wanted to review the tariff once the much anticipated general election. But, the Sarawak state election result could have derailed the early election plan. If we don't review now, TNB may facing financial difficulties which may impact the cash flow and credit ratings of its debts. High natural gas price is affecting the bottom line of the company.

Petrol RON95 price

Comparing to its brother (RON97), we should be more than happy to still pumping at current price. The last review is on December 2010, and the 6 months grace period will end by June 2011. In other words, next month (June 2011) would be schedule to revise the price again. Actually, this is not a surprise move given that the Government had already gradually cutting subsidies since last year. And, he did mentioned that petrol price will be subsidy-free by 2013.

Conclusion by Finance Malaysia

Confidently, we predicts that Government will revise both electricity tariff and RON95 price UPWARDS. Inflation will shot up to 4% this year. BNM will continue its OPR hiking. Believe it? You can watch TV news and advertisements these few days. Government is "previewing" the increase, letting Rakyat to welcome it mentally. Not enough? That's why we saw news from economists saying that "Malaysia will Bankrupt, if Government do not cut subsidies". BNM governor is embracing the increase, saying "We can ride out high costs".

New Fund: OSK-UOB Multi-Asset Recovery Strategy Fund

With the ongoing global economic recovery and the various opportunities created from the vast stimulus packages put forth by governments around the world, we are currently witnessing differing levels of economic expansion across all economies. And different asset classes such as equities, bonds, commodities, currencies and cash perform differently under different stages of economic expansion.

Hence, OSK-UOB now offer investors a fund that will capitalize on the potential opportunities arising from the different market conditions resulting from this economic expansion phase by dynamically investing in multi-asset classes that are expected to do well in specific market conditions.

The OSK-UOB Multi-Asset Recovery Strategy Fund is a fund-of-funds which aims to achieve long term capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The fund aims to achieve its objective through a portfolio of ETFs chosen from 5 major asset classes, i.e equities, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange (currencies) and money market instruments selected from the global markets. The fund's name reflects the fund's strategy that capitalize on the recovery of the global economy by dynamically investing in multi-asset classes through a portfolio of ETFs.

How much return?

This fund is benchmark against an average annual return of 8.00% over the long term. This is the targets of the fund.

Investor Profile?

This fund is suitable for investors who:

• want to capitalize on the recovery of the global economy with an investment that invests dynamically in multi-asset classes through a portfolio of ETFs
• seek capital appreciation
• have a medium risk tolerance
• have a long term investment horizon

Source: OSK-UOB Unit Trust Management Bhd

Click here to download prospectus

New Fund: RHB Dynamic Oil-Gold Capital Protected Fund

Launched on 11th March 2011, RHB Dynamic Oil-Gold Capital Protected fund is investing in oil and gold, which have the potential to perform in both areas that have great bullish and bearish markets.

This is a 3 years capital protected fund. As usual, it will invests at least 85% of the NAV in zero-coupon negotiable instruments of deposits. Meanwhile, up to 10% of the fund's NAV will invest in an over-the-counter (OTC) option that gave investors returns (if any).

The OTC option will provide exposure to the performance of the Option Strategy, which is an index, maintained by the issuer of the OTC option and is subject to a dynamic risk adjustment linked to the realized volatility of the underlying.

Option Strategy

This Option Strategy is a rules-based strategy computed and developed by the option issuer / counterparty. It aims to tap into the growth of oil and gold through the use of a "momentum" based strategy to capture the trends of the Underlying and also, volatility stabilization to reduce the exposure to the Underlying if the volatility is high.

The theory behind momentum strategy assumes that a leading performer from the last period will continue to be leading performer in the next period, while the volatility stabilization will protect investors against sudden changes in the Underlying prices.

How to determined the asset class?

In determining which asset class to invest into, the Option Strategy will look at the below rations:

1. (gold price / oil price) spot ratio
2. 60 days Moving Average (MA) of the Gold / Oil Ratio

To read the prospectus, please click here.

Source: RHB Investment Management

Related Posts:

Unlocking the Mystery of Capital Protected Fund

New Fund: OSK-UOB Capital Protected Sector Strategy Fund

FIMM is a Self-Regulating Organization now. What does it mean?

How far could Oil price RISES?

As usual, another episodes of tension in the Middle East pushes global oil prices higher, and surpassing $100 per barrel this time. We did seen this kind of scenario before in the Middle East during 1973-74, 1979, and the Iraq war in 1990. Are there any different this time?

Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi

By Credit Suisse, 

We believe the rise in oil prices is manageable. Each 10% rise in oil prices only takes about 0.1% off global GDP and 0.2% off US growth. With Western wage growth muted, central banks are unlikely to raise rates on account of oil alone.

Our analysts see oil prices below $100 pb this year, supported by the following reason which differs from previous oil crisis:-

1. There is enough spare capacity in the global oil market to deal with supply-side disruptions as long as they are not too extreme
2. The energy intensity of global GDP has fallen by around 40% over the past 40 years
3. There is unlikely to be the same inflationary follow-through as in the 1970s
4. Oil producers are spending their windfall gains

Yahoo Finance: Oil prices since 28th Feb 2011

Potential Losers

Among the countries that are both significant energy importers and where energy accounts for a large part of the CPI basket, we would highlight India, Czech Republic and Poland. We note that China has the fiscal strength to subsidize higher energy prices, while other countries (namely India and Thailand) may not.

Potential Winners

In our view, the potential winners are countries that are net energy exporters and that have a positive output gap. This highlights Russia, Columbia, Australia, Canada, Malaysia and Norway.

The outlook for oil prices...

We believe that the oil price should fall from here. Saudi Arabia is likely to release some of its oil reserves into the market as it perceives a high oil price to be supportive for the Iranian government. Our house view is that oil price could falls below $100. We would only be concerned if the political unrest in the Middle East were to spread to Saudi Arabia.

* This is just an excerpt from Credit Suisse Research report dated 1 March 2011. This may not informative enough for readers to come to a conclusion.

Related Posts:
When would asset bubbles in Emerging Market "Burst"?

Global Food Crisis, a Repeat of 2008?

KLCI is grappling up for a successful 4 days in a row this week, and perhaps today is the 5th day of record breaking level. However, I am concerned about the health and the sustainability of the market, after reading a report by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). And, one of the popular Mandarin Dailies highlighted the potential food crisis as its main topic today. Finance Malaysia did some analysis, and would like to comment on the issue which could be a hot topic for many nations very soon, including Malaysia.

In fact, international prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. This has led to a level near to its peak in June 2008.

What causing the prices to increased?

• worsening outlook for crops in key producing countries, which require large draw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances
• of course, weakening USD, which continues to sustain the prices of nearly all commodities
• continuous money pouring in for commodities investing too (spicing up speculations)

Fault of commodities investors?

Globally, investors are trying to hedge against inflation, trying to make profit as much as possible. These return hunger investors prompt investment banks to structure and roll-out commodities or resources fund, which invest in commodities related shares and futures. In fact, the world is trading according to the market price, which is the said futures contract. Consequently, commodities investors indirectly pushing up the prices. Are you one of those investors?

Source: FAO website

Repeat of 2008 global food crisis

Although food reserves are larger now after the 2008 lesson, a series of unexpected downward revisions to crop forecasts in several major producing countries pushes world prices to an alarming stage and at a much faster pace than in 2007/08.

As such, Finance Malaysia expects global food crisis is building its momentum now. A repeat of 2008 global food crisis will led us to experience the same scenario listed below, let's be prepared:

• Surging oil price, etc petrol, soy oil, palm oil
• Surging sugar price (people rushing to hypermarkets everyday)
• Surging wheat price (subsequently bread, mee, kuey teow...)
• Riot and demonstrations held weekly, if not daily
• Governments struggles to contain inflation

Source: Various, FAO website

Top 3 Commodity Picks for 2011

Forget about supply and demand issue of commodity, everyone knows the main mover now is Emerging Market, especially China. As long as US economy not yet recovered, China was expected to continue its great appetite to consume commodities globally. Not for its consumptions, but mainly because of China's currency management.

China, already the largest creditor of US by holding USD which was slipping with a series of quantitative easing programs, would definitely forced China to diversify its holding elsewhere. However, China would hand-picking according to its own local demand. As such, Finance Malaysia forecasts those commodities which were used heavily in construction, infrastructure, production will continue to perform in 2011.

 

Top pick #1: Palladium

One in four goods manufactured today either contain platinum group metals or the platinum group metals play a major role during their manufacturing process. Palladium was used in many electronics including computers, mobile phones, multi-layer ceramic capacitors, LCD televisions.

Top pick #2: Silver

Being a precious metal, silver is used to make ornaments, jewelry, high-value tableware, and  currency coins. Today, silver metal is also used in electrical contacts and conductors.

Top pick #3: Copper

About 98% of all copper is used as the metal, taking advantage of distinctive physical properties - being malleable and ductile, a good conductor of both heat and electricity, and being resistant to corrosion. It is widely used in piping for water supplies, refrigeration and air conditioning.

When would asset bubbles in Emerging Market "Burst"?

Do you discounted the possibilities of asset bubbles in Emerging Market?

Even though our governments, including China, saying that asset bubbles is under-controlled for almost one year now, yet, investors are not comfortable with the record breaking prices.

Investors are encountering high prices in properties, commodities, resources, and of course, shares market in emerging markets. People are investing, buying, spending, and borrowing to an extent that would caused asset bubbles in various sectors.

Return, the only thing in mind...

 

Meanwhile, investors are chasing for returns to beat the market at large, and to avoid being left behind. This "Kiasu" behavior are only pouring oils on fire. Yet, returns is the only thing in mind, and those "kiasu" investors are winning the game to date. For those who does not participate in the game were blaming them for causing the high property prices, undermining their affordability to own a house.

 

When did the bubbles started?

 

In fact, the asset bubbles was started end of last year. And, the bad news is, the bubbles are growing non-stop until today. People are blindly pouring oils (until crude oil reaches USD87 per barrel lately), although the fire is big enough to swallow a bungalow.

 

When would it stops?

Oh... To answer it, we have a two-sided views...

One, the asset bubble will anyway stop one day

Two, it will stop when it "burst"

 

All will come to an end by following the sequence below:
- when US and Europe recover from their painful crisis,
- when investors found that US and Europe can give them better return,
- when "kiasu" attitude infecting US and Europe,
- when oil prices is too pricey to ignite the fires (commodities will come down),
- when speculative capital flow out of emerging markets,
- THE END

Why China raise interest rate? And, what's the effect?

Yesterday, China surprisingly raised its interest rate by 0.25% as follows:

- 1 year lending rate from 5.31% to 5.56%

- 1 year deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.50%

Why China raise interest rate?

1. To cool down the over-heating property sector.

2. Combat inflation

3. Low liquidity in the banking system

While inflation was hovering around 3.5% currently, even though the deposit rate has been raised, the net real interest rate is still in negative territory (3.5% - 2.5% = -1.0%). This is one of the main reason why Chinese were going all out to invests, especially in real-estate, due to its low yield if sitting in the bank (even lower than Malaysia).

However, China would be facing another problem...

Raising interest rate would attract capital inflows, which could dampen the purpose of containing inflation. Foreign investors view Chinese renmimbi as undervalue, mainly due to interventions by Chinese government. The latest news could ignite a fresh round of thoughts, worsening the current situation, pushing renmimbi higher and faster.

In fact, China should target it's main problem specifically - real estate. Inflation there is mainly caused by high flying properties prices. Hence, measure such as property gain tax should be introduced first, before raising interest rate, to avoid further attracting inflow of hot-money.

Affecting Malaysia?

Given that China is one of the largest trade partner with us, Malaysia could see a surge in capital inflow also. In fact, the whole region will experience the same fate of stronger currency, making our export to western countries more expensive. Anyway, I believe that we can offset the negative effect with China being the largest commodities / resources consumer, which supplied by Asian countries.

New Fund: AmCommodities Equity Fund

AmMutual sees potential investing in one of the hottest asset classes nowadays - Commodities.

Fundamental characteristic investing in commodity:

1. Commodities outperformed other asset class
2. Low correlation with traditional asset class
3. Commodities are usually used as an inflation hedge
4. Evergreen theme = Increasing Demand vs Diminishing Supply

Category          : Feeder Fund (Global equity)
Offering period : 19 July - 8 August 2010
Min investment : Rm1,000
Min top-up       : Rm 500
Sales charge     : 5%