Why Gold and Silver? Why Online Store?

Are you first time gold and silver buyers? Why don't you invest in these popular metals? If you did so, you have had a wonderful investing experience after 2008 global financial crisis. But, do you really understand these metals? Were they really precious (especially now)?

Traditionally, gold and silver were one form of exchange. Because of the invention of fiat money, they were being turned into some short of "back-up" currency, in case our fiat money system go burst. It's natural when things go wrong, gold and silver tends to appreciate in value. In other words, people hold precious metals to preserve the value of their assets.

3 Reasons Why Gold and Silver...

1. Still hot in demand, especially by emerging affluent Chinese. Traditionally, Chinese loves gold. They bought it for events such as new born baby, new year, wedding and even funeral ceremony.
2. Strengthening USD ??? Yes. It's a correct reason also. Why? Because of news that US going to stop QE3, USD is strengthening so much. But, we must not forget that Europe is still printing money. Then, how about Japan who jump into the bandwagon of money printing?
3. Simply for portfolio diversifying purpose. As a rule of thumb, 10% of our investment portfolio should allocate to precious metals like gold and silver. When everything goes haywire, precious metals tends to react reversely positive.

Alternative Distributing Channel...

Other than the commonly seen channel like banks and goldsmiths, have you ever think about online purchase? Why?

1. Normally, it's cheaper because it does not need to open a shop and employ security guard.
2. Convenient. You can view and select with the pleasure of your time, comfortably at home.
3. Safe delivery. It's depend. But, I will feel safer if it delivers to my doorstep, instead of going to purchase at goldsmith. Do you know someone might be following you?

Of course, some of you may skeptical about the reliability of the online store. You may try it with small purchase first (test the water before diving in). On this matter, one of the most popular online store in town was SilverMalaysia.com which already features in major dailies with wide media coverage. You may open an account, then explore further.

* Finance Malaysia Blog DO NOT holds any form of liabilities regarding the recommendations. Investors are advised to read and understand the terms and condition thoroughly.

Update: Gold Price Outlook (May 2013)

Would you cut loss? Would you cost averaging? Or, would you accumulate at current level? These are a few questions from Gold investors since March 2013. What a difficult questions to answer... Here is our view on gold prices currently:

Our answer is to cost averaging or accumulate now, and hold it at least until September 2013. Why? Let's read on...

Lately, there is some good signs which favors gold prices in the short term:

1. Federal Reserve chairman signaled records stimulus will continue until economy improves.
2. Physical gold demand has surged after mid-April drops, especially from Asian consumers and central banks.
3. US debt ceiling issue will be discussed again in September 2013, in which congressman will most likely to increase again, thus, printing more money.

If you're a technical guy, then let's look at the chart above.

A 'Double Bottom' pattern was formed and gold prices may rebound very soon. It will be a gain of almost 8% if it surges towards 1,500 level. That may not sound sexy, but, what if this occurs in June alone? One month 8% gain enough for you? Anyway, if we look at the chances of gold prices going up versus going down, which side got more potential?

Finance Malaysia blog is only giving all of you readers to have a good discussions here. Any comment?

Was Genneva Gold Investment Scheme a Scam?

Lately, I have a long-lost friend calling me out for a drink. Without hesitation, I am more than happy to meet up with him, a successful businessman. Well, we started off with very casual conversation from politic to investment. Yes, investment is my all-time favorite topic and he knew it. Once my hot button was pressed, he share with me the Genneva Gold Investment Scheme.

With its headquarter situated at Kuchai Entrepreneurs Park, Genneva has evolved to become one of the leading and most innovative gold traders in Malaysia and neighboring countries. What I want to stress here is INNOVATIVE. Why? Please read on...

About the Scheme

Through Genneva's unique wealth sharing platform, you are not only the owner of the gold bullion in hand, you also will get 1.8-2.5% cash return (hibah) every month for 3 months under Genneva's Syariah principle-based product plan. (see picture below)

It is similar to placing your savings in Fixed Deposit. Whether the price of gold goes up or down, your capital is 100% protected with an annualized return of 21.6-30.0%. Whilst if you placed your money into fixed deposit, which only gives you around 3% per year, which one is better? In addition, at the end of each tenure (4 months), you can return the Gold Bullion at the SAME price that you bought the gold. This means a 100% capital protection and guaranteed above 20% return.

WOW. Amazing, fantastic, unbelievable, right? Wait.................................

As an investor, we always reminded that be careful on whatever schemes that promise to gives us high return. Some more, there is NO risk at all in this case. Without rushing for a deal, I search through their website and read some forums on the scheme. It was stated that the company has complied with BAFIA 1989 act and AMLA 2001 act in its website. However, forums are hot in this topic with many people commenting that it was a scam and many Genneva-friendly people refuted their claims. Which side was correct?

Here, Finance Malaysia would like to gather public opinions and comments. Whether you like it or not, it's up to you to judge and decide. For many people, they would rather refrained from entering into this scheme. Why?

1. The return is too good to be true. Minimum of 21.6% annualized return, some more it is Guaranteed!!! How Genneva going to guaranteed such attractive return?
2. Can Genneva generate better return from other investment using the capital? (Better than Warren Buffett?) If not, the business model for sure will fail and it's a scam...
3. Some said Genneva sell gold at a rate more than 20% above market price? Some claims that this is Genneva's admin and processing costs. If that's true, Genneva is making huge profit from us then giving us back the said hibah. Why invest then?
4. Yes. You can get the physical gold bullion after 4 months. But, how are you going to store it? Investors should look at the cost of holding gold bullion too. That is investment expenses which will eat into the return.
5. Who is going to certify that the gold bullion was genuine?

Why Gold Behave Differently this Round? (May 2012)

When market sentiment was bearish, equities market would slump, just like what we seen for past few days. Global markets suffered yet another blow due to the uncertainties surrounding EU, where Greece may potentially exit European Union. Would Greece finally exit EU? This is an interesting yet important questions for investors.

The headlines have been on the EU crisis recently, overshadowing the highly speculated Malaysia general election's date. Well, now would be a tough time for our Prime Minister to call on an election amid the gloomy global outlook. Maybe, the best time to hold an election already gone!!!

Anyway, another interesting issue was the slump in Gold prices. Curiously, many investors questioning the different trend for gold prices. Normally, it will spike up along with the risk level of global equities market, together with USD. Theoretically, gold and USD would over-perform other asset classes during bad times. Yes, USD had already appreciated against a basket of currencies for a record 12 straight days. However, bullion erased its 2012 gains this week while investors are reducing gold holdings for a 3rd month, the longest stretch since 2004.

So, which is the Safe Heaven now?

Based on that fact, it seems like USD is the only safe heaven asset class that investors trusted now. Frankly speaking, Finance Malaysia don't know why gold behave differently this round. Anyway, we came out with the following potential explanations:

1. Actually, we really don't know how to value gold. Is it expensive or cheap? There is no benchmark on gold prices. Because of that, gold price tends to be speculative in nature. Currently, hedge funds are the least bullish on metal since December 2008, and they are the one who drove up gold prices. Is this the time for them to take-profit?
   
   
2. While there is no benchmark for gold, the strength of USD was based on US economy. We can't deny that US is recovering now, amid at a slow pace. Also, without QE3, why USD should stay low? With that reason, investors might chose USD than gold, as the potential is greater.
   
   
3. Please don't forget that many European governments had the greatest gold holdings in the world. For sure, ECB needs to pump in more liquidity into market. Where does the money comes from? When you're holding many gold and you need money, what would you do? Of course, cash in by selling your golds.

Even said so, many analysts are predicting a rebound for bullion. While RBS, ABN Amro and Barclays cut their gold forecast in May, Goldman expects prices to rise by 25% to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months. Billionaire investors, George Soros is favoring gold and he may gave gold investors the confidence. Good Luck.

Why GOLD is a different asset class?

Today, gold is becoming an ever important asset class in the world. Banks nationwide is offering investors the opportunity to invest in gold, whether it is for capital preservation or capital gain. How well you diversify without investing in gold? This is the question being asked by those already investing in gold, and most of them already making profit out of it. But, is it really so different? Is it really a must have asset class?

History of Gold

Gold has been used for numerous monetary functions long long time ago, especially in China. Ancient people used gold as a form of currency and storage of wealth. By using gold as a medium to which paper currency was pegged, most modern international monetary systems were created since then.

What drives up Gold price?

The modern gold rush scenario happened since 2008 global financial crisis, driven by extremely low deposits rate on cash, very volatile equity markets and surging inflation. Negative real value of money is the key factor why many people rushing to gold since then. And of course, the wealth generated by India and China sparked the demand for gold too. Both Indians and Chinese are buying gold as a status they long-been dreaming of.

More people are flocking to Gold

Because of the bad loss-making experience in equity investments during 2008 financial crisis, investors exited the capital markets and were holding record amounts of cash then. However, the low yields on cash and other safer instruments left investors searching for better yield elsewhere. Low volatility, safe asset class, and storage of wealth naturally makes gold investment popular. This is when "Gold rush" sets in, with or without your attention. Yes, we're in the midst of gold rush currently and could persist for few years more.

Emerging Markets is the main drivers

In 2010, 54% of total global demand for gold were for the purposes of making jewelry. Who are these rich people? Yup, Asians were the regular jewelry supporters. Indian demand alone was responsible for around 1/3 of total global demand. This trend is expected to continue as more Indians make their way into the middle class and have the ability to spend their income on gold jewelry.

Following closely was Chinese, whom is beginning to display a trend that could see it overtake the ultimate title in the near future. Traditionally, Chinese cannot runaway from buying gold during Chinese New Year, marriages, new born or even birthdays. This reasons ensure the sustainability of Chinese demand for gold. In total, 40% of global jewelry demand is contributed by Indians and Chinese.

China is the largest gold producing country?

Despite record high gold prices, total mine production was fairly unchanged and remain below levels seen earlier in the decade. This was due to rising production costs and tighter legislation in certain gold producing countries. The latest was in Peru, where protesters were staging a rally for past few days against environment damaged resulted from gold mining activities there.

South Africa, once the largest gold producing country, was overtaken by China since 2007. Hence, China is going to dominate both demand and supply of gold and is expected to continue its pattern of growth going forward.

US and Western Central Banks are largest gold holders?

To re-balance currency reserves, liquidation of gold by central banks globally was a routine procedure. Despite the fact that most western central banks are, for all effects and purposes, over-allocated to gold, annual sales trends began to gradually slow as the effects of financial crisis is not over yet. Obviously, European Central Banks (ECB), have been very hesitant to sell gold from their external reserves back into the marketplace because they view gold as a currency proxy and a way to diversify their holdings. European, from banks to people, prefer to hold gold rather than currency at risk of continue devaluation.

Meanwhile, Emerging countries with particularly small gold holdings as a percentage of reserves currently are diversifying from US dollars. Instead, emerging economies are regular buyers of gold now. As these economies continue its speed to grow bigger, a paradigm shift appears to be unavoidable.

The above factors explained why gold is a different asset class. We cannot simply read the historical trends and using technical analysis tools to predict the gold price directions. Yet, we invest into gold to protect and create wealth, amid the looming economy crisis.

Why Gold Price DROPs lately? (Oct 2011)

During market uncertainties, there are two popular safe assets which is Gold and USD. This explain why the demand for these two assets is great, resulting them to become more valuable while equity market fell. We experienced the said scenario recently and let's see the chart below to gauge the Gold price movements.

"Gold prices collapsed from their August highs in September amid a broad commodity sell-off and despite intensifying concerns over sovereign debt issues in Europe. After exhibiting a remarkable correlation to real rates this year, particularly during the swift August rally, the sharp pullback in gold prices occurred with real rates mostly unchanged."

"Gold prices have now fallen back in line with our 3-month price target. As we expect gold prices will continue to be driven in large measure by the evolution of US real interest rates and with our US economic outlook pointing for continued low levels of US real rates in 2012, we continue to recommend long trading positions in gold and reiterate our 12-month price target of $1,860/toz", reported Goldman Sachs.

Why is it different this round?

Supposedly, gold prices should move in-line with USD. But, we see USD strengthening to months high while gold prices faced some setbacks lately. We at Finance Malaysia would like to guess the off-the-screen factors such as...

First, who is holding the most gold?

Second, who is in dire needs to sell gold reserves?

Of course, European countries (highlighted in yellow)

Now, you know why gold prices behave differently? Ha...ah. We are not surprise by the sell-down (if any), given the high valuations gold fetches when it recorded all-time high almost every days until $1,900/toz. Does Gold more important than cash right now? Yes for China, No for Europe.

Should we invest in Commodities or Resources? (July 2011)‏

Unlike real estate, assets type such as commodities and resources investments tend to be highly volatile. This kind of assets classes is suitable for high risk takers. Knowing the characteristic of the assets classes is important to suit your investment objectives so that a correct investment decision was made. However, I noticed that many investors confused about Commodities and Resources, and they often lumped them as SAME. Is it true? Let's look at it separately (not together).

Commodities vs Resources?
Yes. Both is similar, yet there are some differences between them. First, let's talk about commodities. Commodities for me were comprised of metals such as copper, iron ore, silver, gold, platinum... Although many of us includes energy assets such as oil and gas into it, we can categorize it as an asset class which we can't consume with our mouth. Sometime, it was called hard commodities.

Meanwhile, Resources are soft commodities. They comprises agriculture products and food, etc sugar, corn, wheat, soybean, palm oil... These are closely linked with our food and beverages. After understanding the basic of these two assets, let's us examine the next question.

Should we invest in Commodities or Resources now?

In view of the current scenario, I prefer Resources rather than Commodities. Why? Demand for wheat, rice and other resources tends to be more sustainable. Even if the global economy is going to slow down, we still have to eat or consume as it was a necessity.

Other than that, bad weather (due to global warming?) and natural disaster (due to end-of-the world?) had disrupted the supply of resources. Although commodities such as coal mining in Australia was affected too, food do more harm to human being. Without adequate resources, people may trade commodities for resources!!! Don't you?

What if the current high price of commodities was driven up by speculation? Even though demand and supply play their role here, but speculation and traders tend to make profit from the game. By manipulating the demand-supply story, they're in to drive up the prices, making it more pricier rather than purely based on the fundamental.

After all these points highlighted, would you invest in Commodities or Resources?

New Fund: OSK-UOB Capital Protected Dual Opportunities Fund

While inflation fears in China is a dominant factor, signs that China's growth is holding up well despite this concern will certainly fuel further growth. Traditionally in China, a higher inflation tends to exhibit a positive correlation with Chinese companies price-earnings ratios and nominal earnings growth. Having said that, the consensus view is that the government will raise borrowing costs to contain inflation and prevent the economy from overheating.

With such growth euphoria and inflationary concern, a new fund is structured to take advantage of the current inflationary economy in China. This is a 4-year close-ended capital protected* fund which aims to provide income and capital appreciation over the medium term whilst protecting investors’ capital* on the Maturity Date.

Where is the Fund's return comes from?

The Hong Kong (HK) Option is designed to provide investors with potential annual coupon payments that are based on the performance of Chinese companies’ stocks and potential returns from its exposure to a gold investment at Maturity Date. Hence, the Fund’s name “Dual Opportunities” reflects the two opportunities available under the HK Option.

The HK Option is denominated in US Dollars and thus, the Fund’s return from the HK Option is subject to US Dollars / Ringgit Malaysia exchange rate risk. The Fund has 100% participation in the HK Option payout. The HK Option will provide the Fund with exposure to the performance of a fixed basket of 5 Chinese companies’ stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (“Underlying”).

However, the performance of each of these stocks under the HK Option is capped at 8% per annum. The final Underlying which will always be comprised of 5 stocks will be determined on the Commencement Date of the Fund.

The HK Option will pay the Fund a potential annual coupon payment that is based on the performance of a basket of 5 Chinese companies’ stocks which are expected to perform during this inflationary period.

In addition to the performance of the Underlying, the HK Option is also structured to pay a gold return, if any, at the Maturity Date. The HK Option’s exposure to gold return would depend on the annual performance of the Underlying and also on the performance of gold prices between the Commencement Date and the Maturity Date.

Indicative Asset Allocation of the Fund

The Fund is suitable for investors who:

• have a low risk tolerance;
• seek capital protection;
• have a positive outlook on China's growth potential;
• have a positive outlook for gold prices;
• have a medium term horizon and seek regular income.

Source: OSK-UOB Investment Management

Click here to download Prospectus

New Fund: RHB Dynamic Oil-Gold Capital Protected Fund

Launched on 11th March 2011, RHB Dynamic Oil-Gold Capital Protected fund is investing in oil and gold, which have the potential to perform in both areas that have great bullish and bearish markets.

This is a 3 years capital protected fund. As usual, it will invests at least 85% of the NAV in zero-coupon negotiable instruments of deposits. Meanwhile, up to 10% of the fund's NAV will invest in an over-the-counter (OTC) option that gave investors returns (if any).

The OTC option will provide exposure to the performance of the Option Strategy, which is an index, maintained by the issuer of the OTC option and is subject to a dynamic risk adjustment linked to the realized volatility of the underlying.

Option Strategy

This Option Strategy is a rules-based strategy computed and developed by the option issuer / counterparty. It aims to tap into the growth of oil and gold through the use of a "momentum" based strategy to capture the trends of the Underlying and also, volatility stabilization to reduce the exposure to the Underlying if the volatility is high.

The theory behind momentum strategy assumes that a leading performer from the last period will continue to be leading performer in the next period, while the volatility stabilization will protect investors against sudden changes in the Underlying prices.

How to determined the asset class?

In determining which asset class to invest into, the Option Strategy will look at the below rations:

1. (gold price / oil price) spot ratio
2. 60 days Moving Average (MA) of the Gold / Oil Ratio

To read the prospectus, please click here.

Source: RHB Investment Management

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