After excoriating the banking community for the past five years for making loans to Americans with less than stellar credit, Obama has now reversed course. This week, Obama has now called for banks to return to the bad old days -- lending to people of modest means.
What has been considered a crime by the Obama folks for the last five years is now their latest policy initiative. With the taxpayer, of course and as usual, as the guarantor.
Instead of letting the free market decide who gets to borrow and at what rates, which would avoid the booms and busts of the past, Obama is following his tried and true instincts. Only he knows what is best -- not the markets.
But banks have learned their lesson. Why loan to folks that might not pay you back, regardless of who the guarantor is? The banks now know that they will be accused of predatory lending when these loans go sour. By that time, Obama will be resting comfortably with his millions in Hawaii. What does he care?
Once again, an administration with nothing but contempt for free markets, has demonstrated their ignorance and their duplicity. At least, finally, they appear to realize that strangling the financial community has consequences. Witness the stagnant economy of the Obama years.
Don't expect banks to rush forward to put their neck in the noose once more.
Thursday, 4 April 2013
Sunday, 31 March 2013
Net Worth Update (March 2013)
| Current Net Worth | ||||
| Assets | Feb-13 | Mar-13 | Change | % change |
| Savings Account 1 | $4,958.78 | $3,539.13 | ($1,419.65) | -28.63 |
| Savings Account 2 | $1,570.66 | $1,525.66 | ($45.00) | -2.87 |
| Savings Account 3 | $14,630.00 | $17,055.99 | $2,425.99 | 16.58 |
| Investment Linked Fund | $8,111.76 | $8,550.42 | $438.66 | 5.41 |
| Schroders Commodity Fund | $10,074.46 | $9,992.27 | ($82.19) | -0.82 |
| Stock Holdings | $9,910.00 | $10,140.00 | $230.00 | 2.32 |
| Phillip Money Market Fund | $15,008.43 | $15,013.63 | $5.20 | 0.03 |
| Physical cash | $1,000.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | 0.00 |
| Market Value Of BTO Flat (to be built in 2016/2017) | $750,000.00 | $750,000.00 | $0.00 | |
| Total Assets | $815,264.09 | $816,817.10 | $1,553.01 | 0.19 |
| | | | | |
| Liabilities | | | | |
| Home Loan | $617,500 | $617,500 | $0.00 | 0.00 |
| | | | | |
| Net Worth (including flat to be built in 2016/2017) | $197,764.09 | $199,317.10 | $1,553.01 | 0.79 |
| Investible Net Worth | $65,264.09 | $66,817.10 | $1,553.01 | 2.38 |
Saturday, 30 March 2013
The Next Step in Europe's Implosion
Rome wasn't built in a day and the Eurozone will not collapse in a day. But, the Eurozone will collapse. It's just a matter of time.
Consider the stronger countries in the Eurozone -- Germany and France. Both economies are now contracting. Meanwhile their debt levels, acknowledged and unacknowledged, have exploded to new levels. Both countries are now in the situation that faced Greece four years ago. So, how is their future going to be any different that what is now taking place in Cyprus, Greece, Spain and Italy?
The ECB ministers are a group of political hacks who know little or nothing about economics (something they share with the Obama advising team). Their idea of improving the economic plight of the Eurozone is to increase the level of debt, continue to implicitly guarantee profligate spending and bureaucratic regulations, and plunge the Eurozone into the economic dark ages.
GDP is falling, debt is rising, unemployment is rising, and recriminations are flying. The Eurozone is coming apart at the seams. Civil society has broken down in Greece and is in the process of breaking down in parts of Spain and Italy. Cyprus is entering a dark period. Nothing good lies ahead for the Eurozone.
So, what happens next?
Deposits will begin to seep out of the Eurozone -- most notably from Spanish and Italian banks -- but from other Eurozone countries as well. After all, the ECB bureaucracy has changed the rules. Deposits are now legitimate targets for the bureaucrats. It wasn't the ECB that decided not to confiscate insured depositors in Cyprus, it was the Cypriot parliament who refused to ratify the ECB and IMF policy of confiscating insured depositors. The confiscation of government insured deposits is now a legitimate policy weapon in the Eurozone, overturning a long past history of FDIC-like guarantees in the Eurozone. Nothing is sacred to the bureaucrats.
The genie cannot be put back in the bottle. The European banking sector cannot recover from this bureaucratic policy blunder. Deposits in the Eurozone can never be considered secure, even in circumstances where the bank that houses them is secure. The government can confiscate deposits wherever they may be. This is now a legitimate Eurozone policy weapon. It is also an IMF (read USA) policy tool as well. Even US FDIC-guaranteed deposits may be fair game to the bureaucrats when US debt woes become a front page crisis. An eventuality that must come in time.
Consider the stronger countries in the Eurozone -- Germany and France. Both economies are now contracting. Meanwhile their debt levels, acknowledged and unacknowledged, have exploded to new levels. Both countries are now in the situation that faced Greece four years ago. So, how is their future going to be any different that what is now taking place in Cyprus, Greece, Spain and Italy?
The ECB ministers are a group of political hacks who know little or nothing about economics (something they share with the Obama advising team). Their idea of improving the economic plight of the Eurozone is to increase the level of debt, continue to implicitly guarantee profligate spending and bureaucratic regulations, and plunge the Eurozone into the economic dark ages.
GDP is falling, debt is rising, unemployment is rising, and recriminations are flying. The Eurozone is coming apart at the seams. Civil society has broken down in Greece and is in the process of breaking down in parts of Spain and Italy. Cyprus is entering a dark period. Nothing good lies ahead for the Eurozone.
So, what happens next?
Deposits will begin to seep out of the Eurozone -- most notably from Spanish and Italian banks -- but from other Eurozone countries as well. After all, the ECB bureaucracy has changed the rules. Deposits are now legitimate targets for the bureaucrats. It wasn't the ECB that decided not to confiscate insured depositors in Cyprus, it was the Cypriot parliament who refused to ratify the ECB and IMF policy of confiscating insured depositors. The confiscation of government insured deposits is now a legitimate policy weapon in the Eurozone, overturning a long past history of FDIC-like guarantees in the Eurozone. Nothing is sacred to the bureaucrats.
The genie cannot be put back in the bottle. The European banking sector cannot recover from this bureaucratic policy blunder. Deposits in the Eurozone can never be considered secure, even in circumstances where the bank that houses them is secure. The government can confiscate deposits wherever they may be. This is now a legitimate Eurozone policy weapon. It is also an IMF (read USA) policy tool as well. Even US FDIC-guaranteed deposits may be fair game to the bureaucrats when US debt woes become a front page crisis. An eventuality that must come in time.
Friday, 29 March 2013
Are Personal Bankers Qualified Enough?
Personal Bankers / Personal Financial Consultants / Personal Wealth Managers are the sales people in a bank branch who promote all kinds of banking products which include unit trusts, insurance, loans, structured deposits, etc. Walk into any bank branch and you will see young and driven personal bankers dressed in corporate wear soliciting walk-in customers or sitting in their cubicles servicing the mass market customers.
Since personal bankers are on the front line of a bank recommending financial products to potentially ignorant consumers, we naturally assume they have adequate financial knowledge or at least a degree in finance or other related majors. However, a simple search on JobStreet will reveal that the minimum qualification for personal bankers is a degree or diploma in any discipline. In addition, candidates are required to have a minimum 1 year of sales experience.
Personal bankers are required to pass the CMFAS exams (all MCQs) and go through some form of sales training for about a month before they are eligible to start selling banking products. I personally have taken the CMFAS HI, M5, M8 & M9 exams and I can say that the exams alone are insufficient to equip a person with sufficient financial knowledge. The bulk of the CFMAS syllabus is on rules and regulations rather than finance topics.
From what my personal banker friend told me, there are a number of personal bankers who have non-finance related degrees such as geography, engineering, etc. With insufficient financial knowledge, personal bankers might not be able to fully comprehend and explain the inherent risks of certain products to customers. In a desperate attempt to hit sales target, some personal bankers start using past performance to paint a bright outlook on a fund's future performance or comparing interest rates on savings deposits with potential returns of a bond/equity fund without emphasizing on the risks involved.
The Lehman Brothers saga in 2008 exemplified this problem. Investigation findings on the sale and marketing on structured notes linked to Lehman Brothers released by MAS stated that there were insufficient steps taken by some financial institutions to ensure that all their financial advisory representatives were properly trained before marketing and selling the product. Also, from the many descriptions given by investors with regards to the information the received from sales representatives, it is clear that there were misrepresentation of this product.
Banks should have more stringent requirements on hiring personal bankers and have a more detailed and extensive training program. The sales target of personal bankers puts them under such high pressure that closing the deal overrides everything else. It is well known that retail banks have a high turnover rate for front line staff as many of them are unable to hit ridiculous sales target. For example, bankers of local bank XXX are given monthly sales targets which are denominated by 'revenue points'. Each dollar of sales charge or revenue earned equates to 1 revenue point. Monthly sales target could be to achieve 30,000 revenue points or more. This means that a personal banker will have to sell at least $20,000 worth of unit trusts everyday!
So are personal bankers considered finance professionals? Or are they just typical sales people? Many of my friends in university have applied to retail banking programs such as UOB Personal Banking Associate Programme or Standard Chartered Consumer Banking Fast Track Programme. What they might not understand is that it might not be as prestigious as it sounds and the chances of moving from retail banking to private banking are slim.
Since personal bankers are on the front line of a bank recommending financial products to potentially ignorant consumers, we naturally assume they have adequate financial knowledge or at least a degree in finance or other related majors. However, a simple search on JobStreet will reveal that the minimum qualification for personal bankers is a degree or diploma in any discipline. In addition, candidates are required to have a minimum 1 year of sales experience.
Personal bankers are required to pass the CMFAS exams (all MCQs) and go through some form of sales training for about a month before they are eligible to start selling banking products. I personally have taken the CMFAS HI, M5, M8 & M9 exams and I can say that the exams alone are insufficient to equip a person with sufficient financial knowledge. The bulk of the CFMAS syllabus is on rules and regulations rather than finance topics.
From what my personal banker friend told me, there are a number of personal bankers who have non-finance related degrees such as geography, engineering, etc. With insufficient financial knowledge, personal bankers might not be able to fully comprehend and explain the inherent risks of certain products to customers. In a desperate attempt to hit sales target, some personal bankers start using past performance to paint a bright outlook on a fund's future performance or comparing interest rates on savings deposits with potential returns of a bond/equity fund without emphasizing on the risks involved.
The Lehman Brothers saga in 2008 exemplified this problem. Investigation findings on the sale and marketing on structured notes linked to Lehman Brothers released by MAS stated that there were insufficient steps taken by some financial institutions to ensure that all their financial advisory representatives were properly trained before marketing and selling the product. Also, from the many descriptions given by investors with regards to the information the received from sales representatives, it is clear that there were misrepresentation of this product.
Banks should have more stringent requirements on hiring personal bankers and have a more detailed and extensive training program. The sales target of personal bankers puts them under such high pressure that closing the deal overrides everything else. It is well known that retail banks have a high turnover rate for front line staff as many of them are unable to hit ridiculous sales target. For example, bankers of local bank XXX are given monthly sales targets which are denominated by 'revenue points'. Each dollar of sales charge or revenue earned equates to 1 revenue point. Monthly sales target could be to achieve 30,000 revenue points or more. This means that a personal banker will have to sell at least $20,000 worth of unit trusts everyday!
So are personal bankers considered finance professionals? Or are they just typical sales people? Many of my friends in university have applied to retail banking programs such as UOB Personal Banking Associate Programme or Standard Chartered Consumer Banking Fast Track Programme. What they might not understand is that it might not be as prestigious as it sounds and the chances of moving from retail banking to private banking are slim.
Saturday, 23 March 2013
Little Cyprus
So how big is Cyprus? 800,000 people with a GDP of about 18 billion Euros -- less than 10 percent of the size and wealth of the State of Virginia. So, how can Cyprus rock the Eurozone?
Easy. Let politics substitute for economics and anything can happen.
The grand Euro scheme of bailing out country after country is rapidly running up against reality. The sacrifices that the bailers require are politically unacceptable to the bailees.
Austerity traded for more debt -- this is the bailout scheme devised by politicians. This scheme is an effort to change reality and it won't work.
The reality is that Cyprus banking is history. Who, in his right mind, would willingly leave their money in a Cypriot bank after the events of the past week? It doesn't really matter what solution is imposed, the Cypriot financial community will not recover.
Meanwhile, institutions with deposits in Italian and Spanish banks now face a new reality, hitherto not contemplated. The European Central Bank and the IMF have this week endorsed a new policy tool for dealing with debtor nations -- confiscation of bank deposits. Who would have thought? But now the thinking begins. Should I or shouldn't I move my cash deposits from Italian and Spanish banks for the safer confines of London or New York or Geneva or Singapore? No doubt such thoughts are now extant in the minds of all institutional investors across the globe.
When economics no longer guides economies and the politicians take over, this is the outcome -- collapsing GDP, rising debt levels, and growing political anarchy. We are just at the early stages of the coming demise of Europe.
Easy. Let politics substitute for economics and anything can happen.
The grand Euro scheme of bailing out country after country is rapidly running up against reality. The sacrifices that the bailers require are politically unacceptable to the bailees.
Austerity traded for more debt -- this is the bailout scheme devised by politicians. This scheme is an effort to change reality and it won't work.
The reality is that Cyprus banking is history. Who, in his right mind, would willingly leave their money in a Cypriot bank after the events of the past week? It doesn't really matter what solution is imposed, the Cypriot financial community will not recover.
Meanwhile, institutions with deposits in Italian and Spanish banks now face a new reality, hitherto not contemplated. The European Central Bank and the IMF have this week endorsed a new policy tool for dealing with debtor nations -- confiscation of bank deposits. Who would have thought? But now the thinking begins. Should I or shouldn't I move my cash deposits from Italian and Spanish banks for the safer confines of London or New York or Geneva or Singapore? No doubt such thoughts are now extant in the minds of all institutional investors across the globe.
When economics no longer guides economies and the politicians take over, this is the outcome -- collapsing GDP, rising debt levels, and growing political anarchy. We are just at the early stages of the coming demise of Europe.
Friday, 15 March 2013
5 Things to Know before 13th General Election
Are you bored of the recent elections hoo-haa ? It's all coming from either party from different side, some NGOs, and some political related persons. How about foreigners? What are they thinking about our Malaysia General Election? Here you go...
In this note, Morgan Stanley outline the 5 things they think investors need to know regarding Malaysia elections:
- What's upcoming? Setting the context
The 13th General Elections are due to be held very soon in Malayia. Parliament needs to be dissolved no later than April 2013, and elections need to be held no later than 60 days from date of its dissolution. - Which are the key states to monitor?
They are Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Perak, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. - Election scenarios and macro implications
BN Parliamentary seat share of > 63% would be seen as a positive surprise for investors. BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50% would be seen as a negative risk event by investors and could have implications for leadership and government stability. The political landscape will determine momentum of reform agenda. - Policy comparison: Pakatan Rakyat (PR) vs Barisan Nasional (BN)
The broad economic thrust of PR policy is fairly similar to that of BN. However, PR campaign proposals have a more leftist slant and also focus on policy devolvement to state governments, more geographically balanced economic development, and strengthening of decentralization in Sabah and Sarawak. - What to expect in UMNO Party elections?UMNO elections have to be held by Jun-2013. The president of UNMO is historically the prime minister, and hence, this will determine whether there is leadership stability. Forthcoming elections will take place amid constitutional amendments which makes the process more democratic.
* NO abusive comments were allowed. Thanks.
Source: Morgan Stanley research report dated 18th Feb 2013
Wednesday, 13 March 2013
OSK-UOB Dana KidSave
One of the most desired by an investor, is to achieve diversification in his or her portfolio and what better way to do so then by investing in a balanced fund. A balance in an investment portfolio is also fundamental to appease an investor in times of uncertainties and volatility. Such a balance can appeal to the investor of any age regardless of his or her objectives. Thus, with market uncertainties continuing to prevail over the Eurozone debt crisis and its contagion effect on the global economy, investors remain cautious with their investment choice, seeking to invest in low to moderate risk investments such as a balanced fund.
Hence, OSK-UOB offer you a Shariah-based fund with its balanced asset allocation strategy in equities and investments comprising sukuk, islamic money market instruments, deposits and collective investment schemes. The investment in equities will enjoy potential capital appreciation upswings while any downswings will be cushioned by its investments in the latter which are defensive in nature.
When making investments, the manager may invest up to 30% of NAV in foreign markets. The fund will invest in Shariah-compliant securities/instruments listed on or traded in Asia Pacific ex Japan markets, including Shariah-compliant securities / instruments of companies that are listed on or traded in non-Asia Pacific ex Japan markets (such as NYSE and LSE).
How about Sukuk ?
At lease BBB rating sukuk issued by Malaysian incorporated companies at the point of purchase by RAM Rating Services Bhd or equivalent rating agencies. Foreign sukuk issued by corporations and financial institutions must carry a rating of BB or higher by S&P or equivalent, whereas sukuk issued by supra-nationals, governments and their agencies need not be rated.
Source: OSK-UOB IM
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