Post-Japan Disaster: After Timber, it's Glove Sector?

As per our previous posts (How Should Investors trade after the Japanese Disaster?), we wrote about timber counters, and it's proven the right sector investors should look at. And, below is the performance of those mentioned counters.

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All of them outperformed KLCI, which recorded -2.20%. Why WTK outperformed its peers? Simple answer is its cheaper share price and better liquidity. In fact, TaAnn and WTK is the main focus because they export 80-90% of their products to Japan. This puts them in the limelight of stocks investors should look at for the moment.

Why should you look at Glove sector next?

After timber, glove sector should outperformed the generally weak market sentiment. Investors are scared. Those who already bought was stuck-in there. Those who already sold was staying sidelined. And, those who dare to buy now is focusing on timber stocks only - and today glove.

Main reasons were:

1. Demand for medical glove is expected to increase substantially. After the disaster, Japan should be facing another problem - outbreak of diseases. Because of the wet and dirty condition after tsunami, diseases tends to spread easily and this could intensify the demand for gloves being used by medical personnel and public in general.
2. Stronger USD. One of the setback for our glove makers is weakening of USD which could harm the export market to US. Post-Japan disaster, USD was expected to strengthen in line with "flight to safety" strategy employed by global investors. This is an advantage, or in fact, the turning point for our glove makers.

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With these two important factors, glove sector should be on investors' radar in the near future. Indeed, you do not have much choice in this kind of market where everything seems going down hill. Either you stay sidelined, or brace the storm to invest in these counters. And, my personal stock-picks would be Supermax due to its attractive valuation and good liquidity.

Finance Malaysia urged all Japanese to stay strong, and we will support you from afar. We are living in the same planet. We are 1 actually.

Analyzing Latexx Partners' takeover offer

Just before CNY, Latexx surprisingly announcing that the company had accepted a non-binding takeover offer by two private equity funds. However, the deal looks unattractive with limited upside given the offer price of RM3.10 only. For your information, it is only 10.7% above the last trading price of RM2.80 only.

About the offer:

• The offer values Latexx at 8.2x P/E only versus sector's average of 11.7x
• The takeover offer needs to secure a 75% shareholders' approval as lay out by the new rules
• With RM3.10 per share, the offer was valued as RM 852.03 million (inclusive of 55.03 million warrants)

Would the deal materialize?

Finance Malaysia doubt the deal will go through, given the unattractive valuations attached. Please take note that Latexx was one of the largest medical examinations gloves producers globally. By taking over at a mere 8.2x P/E, it would be a very good buy, but not a good sell at all. Another issue which sparks our interest was that the background of the two private equity funds being the acquirers.

Navis Asia VI Management Company Limited (Navis), a wholly owned unit of Navis Capital Partners, a US$ 3bn investment firm. Meanwhile, Mettiz, a holding company owned by Michael Tang Vee Mun, was the provider of equity financing for KNM Group's failed management buyout early last year. (CIMB research)

Would it be another "failed" buyout by Mettiz? A repeat of the dramatic KNM's tumbling version? Finance Malaysia really can't predict the outcome from the EGM to be convened soon on the offer. It's all depends on Latexx's shareholders to decide.

But, judging from the "not so performing" share price the day after the said announcement, most probably the outcome is already been factor-in... which was "failed". Anyway, we may heed the advise from the independent adviser appointed by Latexx's board of directors -- Hong Leong Investment Bank -- before voting.

After all, I like Supermax and Kossan for its lower P/E and larger players in the same industry.

Related Posts:

2011 Malaysia Outlook: Sunshine to Sunset

Brighter outlook for Glove Sector?