Game-Over for Construction Sector? (28 Feb 2011)

All are going very well for Malaysia construction sector last year in line with the recovery of economy until it hit the first "hard bump" last week. We all know that construction sector is very volatile, influenced by the health of global economy, government's pump-priming projects, and of course the huge overhead costs such as labor and building materials costs.

Somehow, unrest at Middle East are hogging the bright future of Malaysia's construction counters. First, surging oil prices put pressure on the bottom-line of the companies. Second, projects from that oil-rich nations will dampened the outlook with a slew of Malaysian companies venturing successfully into that region.

The Game still going on?

According to CIMB Research, the selling pressure on construction stocks is overdone as jobs in the Middle East account for 3 - 41% of the order books of WCT, IJM Corp, Gamuda and Muhibbah Engineering and the projects are mostly at the tail end with no payment issues so far. 

For instance, IJM only has 3% order book exposure while Muhibbah's balance of works at NDIA 

is backed by the Qatar government's push to complete the job by end-2011. WCT has a geographical advantage in Qatar which appears to be at the lowest risk of a political unrest. As for Gamuda, its Middle East exposure is minimal.

However, Finance Malaysia opine that the panic selling is understandable given the past experience of LCL Corp. Before the 2008 financial crisis, and also with high oil prices (just like right now), LCL has a bunch of projects in Middle East especially Dubai. All seems pretty well, until a sudden sharp drops in oil prices landed the oil-rich nation into huge budget deficit. Subsequently, LCL is facing cash flow problems which forced the company being delisted. A company with great potential go burst in few months. Of course, traders do take precautions now to avoid that same fate.

But, given the continuous ETP projects being rolled out by government this year, and also the "election factor", I think construction sector is very happening at least for another few months. Government: "The game must go on?"

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Potential Construction Projects Flow in 2011

During 4Q 2010, there were a series of positive news brought into construction sector. These news could possibly bring some cheers for local contractors during the "award ceremony" soon. To summarize it, let us examined and explored the news highlighted in 4Q 2010 for construction sector:-

OSK Research:

• KL Mass Rapid Transit, with the cabinet approving 1 of the 3 lines proposed, which will run from Sg Buloh to Kajang. It is said that the Government will set up an SPV to fund the RM36bn job via bonds and other capital market instruments. Tenders for the Sg Buloh-Kajang line will be open in April while construction will commence in July. Gamuda-MMC JV, which was recently appointed as Project Delivery Partner, to be the ultimate beneficiary of the MRT. The JV is only allowed to tender for the tunneling works estimated at RM14bn.
• Construction of the RM5bn Warisan Merdeka development is said to be slated to commence this year for implementation in 3 phases over 10 years. Amongst the local contractors, we think IJM is in the best position to participate in the tower portion given its track record with high-rise buildings in KL city center. Green building specialist Putrajaya Perdana could also benefit from the non-tower portions.
• A feasibility study is currently being conducted to evaluate the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail and will be concluded by mid-year, which cost RM10-12bn. Magnetic levitation technology was being proposed. OSK gather that YTL Corp has made proposals for several portions of the project.
• Brazail based Vale SA, the world's largest iron ore producer will invest RM467mil in Malaysia this year. The investment will involve the construction of a maritime terminal and distribution center to transport iron ore from Teluk Rubiah, Perak. We understand that Muhibbah Engineering is the only local contractor that has been pre-qualified for some of the packages.
• Bintulu Port has been invited by Sarawak government to submit a detailed proposal for the Samalaju Port. If implemented, we think Hock Seng Lee could win some packages given its marine engineering expertise.
• Malaysia and India have signed an MOU on technical assistance for road development which could enable Malaysian contractors to participate in the latter's projects. We see IJM as the clear winner from this MOU given its track record of building more than 1,400km of roads in India.
• During the Big 5 International Building and Construction Show in Abu Dhabi, it was reported that some more than USD23bn worth of construction contracts are ready to be awarded in the UAE. We view WCT as the ultimate beneficiary from contracts flow from the UAE given its past record in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Qatar.