Part_1: Investing with Insurance? Think again...

Many people mistakenly linking investment and insurance. Investing through an insurance policy is very popular nowadays. However, this could turned out to be a costly wrong move because:

1. there must be insurance charges (many agents always say FREE coverage), that's why the return will be based on % of sum assured.
   


2. there must be years of locking period (many agents say this is for long-term), where you can't get back your "invested amount" if withdrawn prematurely.
   


3. there is NO double-digit annual return ever. If yes, ask whether is it Guarantee? Written? If still yes, let me know and I will sign-up immediately.
   
   

So, be careful when you are dealing with these "financial providers". Insurance is a long-term thing. If you found out late, you will be penalised with $$$ or forced to continue for years.

*Hint: Insurance is for protection or long-term financial planning only. Not for investment.

Why is so important to be financially literate?

After Lehman Brothers' collapsing 1 year anniversary, did you noticing the urgent needs to be financially literate? If no, you must start now. And if yes, what have you done for the past 1 year on it?

Financial products (insurance, investment, loans, credit cards) are becoming more complicated nowadays, if we are not well-verse with it, how?
A very good example have been shown by the toxic-bonds thrown by Lehman Brothers.

If we are financially literate, we will be able to:

• make effective personal decision
• avoid financial breakups because of money
• improve our mental and emotional well-being
• know our own financial status, and not blaming others
• asking the right questions and getting accurate answers
• increase our ability to understand sophisticated products
• mitigate the investment market risks
• avoiding scams and toxic investment products
• differentiate between network marketing and pyramid schemes

Sometimes, it's not necessary to fall into a hole, for the sake of knowing how deep the hole was.

If the hole is shallow, congratulation for having a 2nd chance with lesson learned.

If the hole is deep, you may not back to your feet anymore. Good Luck !!!

2010 catalyst - Inflation?

Equity market started it's Bull-run since March 2009 until now. This has caught many of people's attentions, also, caught many investors waiting for a drop for months.

Missed the V-shaped rebound?
Or, W-shaped recovery coming?

None of us know the exact answer of it. But, one thing is for sure -- market is recovering slowly.
As an investor, leaving the market is a sure WRONG strategy. Now is the consequences of it. Even Warren Buffet didn't exit his investment totally, instead, slowly increasing his equity exposure to those "jewels" he selected carefully.

Anyway, Inflation most probably will rose next year due to:

1. Weakening USD
US undeniably was recovering from "Illness" now, however, the treatment bills (budget deficit) can't settle overnight. This have been putting pressure on USD. And, bear in mind many commodities are trade in USD too.

2. Sudden surge of demand for commodities
Yes, demand is weak now. But, it doesn't mean that it will be the same when all the governments' projects started to take effect. This sudden demand may last for few months only, but, it could spike up the prices and have a say on inflation rate.

3. Speculation
Whenever we talk about resources, speculators would come into picture to take advantage of it. That's why it was so volatile each time. And, I believe this time will be the same too. Maybe the speculators is OURs this time. We can't change the herd-mentality all this while, right?

The Magpies of Ananda

Introduction of Newcastle United F.C:

• No. 1 fan based club (north-east england)
• Most popular football club in 90's (not anymore in 21st century)
• One of the most wealthy club (50million pounds world's record for Shearer)
• Relegated last season

Just when everyone starting to forget Newcastle United, someone, somewhere shown his interest to be the next successor of the club - hopefully. South-east Asia's 3rd richest man worth 4.5billion pounds - Ananda Krishnan - has jumped to head the queue to buy Newcastle.

To add-on, the owner of Tanjong, Astro, Maxis, TGV cinemas... see this as an golden opportunity to expand his empire into Euro land. Is this really a business, or merely of football fan ?

As I know, A.K was not a die hard football fan, who are willing to fork out millions of pounds. I would believe if it was Tony Fernandes (AirAsia boss). Something must be in A.K's mind instead, and it maybe:

• Huge betting businesses in England?

This is the only reason gone through my head.

Reason of Correction

Many of my friends make a lot of "horizontal-wealth" through investment during 1st half of 2009. However, starting middle of June 09, share market around the world turns ugly.

Why?
Profit taking?
Corrections?
Or, continuing of bear market?

Let's do some analysis over here:

1. Like I said before, US funds accounted more than 50% of global market investment.
2. Economists foreseen that USD will weaken in the immediate future.
3. And, June is window-dressing month for fund managers.

If you relate these 3 assumptions together, the secret had unfold.

Explanations:

• From March 09 onwards, US funds have been flowing out of US to other countries. Emerging Markets rally. USD weaken.
• When mid-year reporting seasons approaching, fund managers lock-in their profit, pull their funds back to US. Emerging Market correct. USD strengthen.

Make sense?

Back to 90's Asia Bull Rally?

Still remember 93-94 Asia market bull run?

What is actually causing the bull run during that "sweet" time is happening soon (1-2 years).

Main factor: Weakening USD

During that time, because of weakening USD, funds being flowing to other market instead of US. And, Emerging Market - especially Asia - being the top spot for foreign funds to invest in. Malaysia, by that time didn't left out from the opportunity, and changing the lifestyle of many Malaysians (from ordinary person to Stock Traders).

This time around, many economists predict that USD will weaken because of the massive budget deficit recorded, high unemployment rate and weak economy's figures. What's the big deal?

Do remember that US funds reaches as high as 50% of world's share market. See it now?

For sure, US funds will flow from US to Emerging Markets (to get out from holding US currency).

Then, which asset classes they may went in? Fixed Income or Equity? It is very much depends on the risk appetite of investors. But, from the current scenario (June09), investors are most likely to move out from being conservative to aggressive mode. For that reason, Emerging Asia is the region where investors could not afford to miss out. More capitalised market like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore will most likely to benefit from these in-flow of funds.

Which sector/type of companies being recommended by you???

Battle of Bankruptcies???

Battle of Bankruptcies???

General Motors (GM) VS Lehman Brothers (LB)

If we analyze corporate bankruptcies occurred in U.S, we could found a huge differences in-terms of market reaction. Lehman Brothers bankruptcy last year had caused the market slump to all-time lows around the globe.

However, General Motors story didn't have any impact on the market either. Instead, market gone up "crazily". In fact, GM's demise had broken the U.S history -- largest corporate failure.

Why such differences? Let's have a look:

1. Expectation. LB caught everyone surprise when U.S government didn't lend a hand to rescue it, although LB is much more popular than Fannie & Freddie. In contrast, GM should have closed down long time ago, if not because of U.S government stubbornness to revive the company. Finally, "Paper cannot used to cover Fire". GM's case is expected.
2. Factor. Before GM announcing the final decision on whether it will survive or demise, market had actually factoring the possible worst outcome ways before GM's due date.
3. Relief. Market's arrow points to the sky instead of ground, because of the credibility of U.S government measures to revive the economy. Sometimes, facing the truth is the best solution for moving ahead. Peoples are relief that, after so many months of speculating, GM finally closed down.

What should I said further?

Good Luck...